On January 16th, I wrote an article about WandaVision that GoCollect published on January 31st. In the spirit of constant evaluation and improvement, let’s discuss how I did with my recommendations in that blog.
The Market Is Sometimes Wrong.
In that article, I wrote about several comics related to WandaVision speculation, including Silver Surfer #3. Specifically, I wrote speculators driving up the value of SS #3 “look[ed] like FOMO; investors noticing a sharp rally in an asset, and a fear of missing out clouds all other analysis of the asset’s current price.”
Even if Mephisto had appeared, investors had already priced that appearance into the market. This is similar to what happens in the stock market. The stock market reflects what investors think the market will look like about six or 12 months in the future. For example, as we learned more and more about the effectiveness of the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines, the stock market made several leaps in value even before scientists had completed drug trials. That said, once the federal government actually began distributing the vaccine, the stock market only achieved modest gains. Investors had already priced the value of the vaccines into the market.
No one will ever know for certain, but I believe the same thing would’ve happened if Mephisto had indeed appeared in WandaVision. In other words, the market felt certain Mephisto would eventually appear and therefore had already priced that expectation into the market. We might’ve seen a modest increase, but I think this book had already reached its ceiling regardless of whether he appeared or not.
Now is the Time to Look for Silver Surfer #3
I also predicted that “[p]rices may come back down to earth in the years ahead.” That may actually happen much faster than expected. It’ll take a few weeks (or months) to see if that’s indeed the case, but now’s the time to start looking for good deals. It’s still a great Silver Age comic with a beautiful cover. And Mephisto may yet still appear in the MCU. This is a blue chip stock, and we may see a significant price drop in the future. We already see evidence of a dip; during the past month, this issue’s value has dropped in almost all grades (I checked GoCollect’s Analyzer on March 30th).
West Coast Avengers #45
I got West Coast Avengers #45 wrong. In my blog, I wrote that “West Coast Avengers #45… is another one to stay away from (and would sell if I still owned my copy).” I noted that, in late January, you could’ve achieved a 500% return on a CGC 9.8 copy of this book if you had purchased it a year earlier. Little did I know that two sales of this book would soon exceed $1,200 shortly after WandaVision revealed the white Vision. I might be wrong again, but I still think it’s a great time to sell this comic.
As a footnote, my brother found my copy at my parents’ house, but it was in poor condition. I’m still going to sell it if I can get a hold of it soon!
What are your thoughts about the trajectories of these two books? Would you buy or sell? Please let us know your thoughts in the comment section below!