Ultimate Fallout #4: My Argument for not Investing

by Joseph Overaitis

fall-195x300 Ultimate Fallout #4: My Argument for not InvestingNo article I have written elicited as much controversy as my article on Ultimate Fallout #4.  I stated this book might fall in value.  The readers responded.  Here is my rebuttal to those responses.

A Hero For The Next Generation

Readers’ Points:

The main argument was Miles Morales was THE Spider-Man for the next generation.  Miles Morales was a teen that young readers could relate to.  Fans of Spider-Man now had two characters that could exist in the same universe.  Miles Morales was for the younger generation. Appearing in the MCU would only cause this book to explode in value.

Rebuttal:

eyJidWNrZXQiOiJnb2NvbGxlY3QuaW1hZ2VzLnB1YiIsImtleSI6IjhiOTY1YTA1LTY0N2EtNDcyMy1iZjJlLWUyODQ0MmMxOTM4MC5qcGciLCJlZGl0cyI6W119-200x300 Ultimate Fallout #4: My Argument for not InvestingMorales may be the new Spider-Man, but not necessarily in comics. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse was a movie that most of the younger generation first got to know Miles. Young adults are not reading comics.  They are watching movies, reading manga titles, and playing with apps. Adults read comics.  Alan Moore said as much in a recent interview with Deadspin.  Adults read comics because comics were written for adults.

Middle-aged and older buyers buy this book looking to capture the next hot thing.  The fear of missing out on the next big Spider-Man key is driving this market.  Morales appearing in the MCU WILL increase this book’s FMV, but how long will that last if the only people buying the book are older investors waiting for younger investors to buy this book. 

 

Right-Wing Conservative Far Left Bias

Readers’ Points:

Readers called me a right-wing conservative.  They believed I did not like investing in the first appearance of Miles Morales because he was a minority member.  This was shortly after I was called a  far-left liberal for another article calling out Kevin Feige for the lack of mentally and physically impaired characters in the MCU.   Readers said that Marvel making Spider-Man a non-caucasian character was a monumental event.  This fact alone makes the book a good investment. My political ideology was hindering me from seeing this was a good book to invest in.

Rebuttal

I  started to read Miles Morales stories to make a better-educated investment decision.  My reason for not liking this book is that his race is not that important to the character.  I can still see no significance in these stories to justify all the money being spent for Ultimate Fallout #4.  In Alpha Flight #106 Northstar came out.  Investors and speculators took notice.  Shortly thereafter no one cared.  Sexuality, race, and national origin are not as important to investors as a good character with quality stories.  Speculators will hope to make a quick dollar on the buzz.  They will leave eventually like they did with the Northstar issue.

Better Choice #1

blue-194x300 Ultimate Fallout #4: My Argument for not Investing If you want to invest in a book that demonstrates how the race of character plays a significant role in a story read Adam: Legend of the Blue Marvel #1. It reworks the Marvel Universe and addresses the question of why there were not more minority characters in the Silver Age.  This story is a reflection of our real society.  If cultural significance is driving Ultimate Fallout #4 why then is everyone not going after this book?  Please note the price is high for this book.  This issue is a sound investment because of the total number of books in the census. Very few books printed and even fewer graded.

Everyone says Miles Morales in the MCU will drive his price up.  Speculators have been saying that for years and the price is already high.  Blue Marvel has no MCU hype and yet look at the numbers on this book.  If he appears in the MCU what will the new FMV look like?

Better Choice #2

truth-194x300 Ultimate Fallout #4: My Argument for not InvestingAnother book to read and invest in is Truth: Red, White & Black #1.  This is the first appearance of Isaiah Bradley, the first black Captain America.  This story again derives plot elements from historical events.  His story is more compelling than the Miles Morales story when it comes to addressing cultural issues.

This character is not in the MCU, but you never know how Marvel works.  Imagine Carl Lumbly as an aging Mr. Bradley revealing an unknown tale of the MCU universe on “The Falcon and the Winter Soldier”. Eli Bradley is appearing as a character on the show so an elderly Isaiah Bradley appearing is not an out-there idea.  Thus if the reason for Ultimate Fallout #4 being so valuable is because of its cultural importance and the MCU,  I again state there are better choices out there. Please note that before the pandemic I could still find this book in a few dollar bins.

The Numbers Do Not Lie

Readers’ Points:

The next reason readers told me to buy this book is because of the numbers.  Repeatedly I was told that this book keeps increasing in value.  The fact that this book keeps rising in value is the only number I should be concerned about as an investor.

Rebuttal:

The data cited on Comichron.com indicates that the total number of issues released is 73,764.  That means there are a lot of issues out there.  Ultimate Fallout #4 appearances in local comic book stores are not out of the norm.  This book is, again, not even 10 years old. The age of the book works against the investment potential of the issue when you look deeper into the numbers.

I am going to tell you a little secret about GoCollect.  The FMV of books listed in the guide are not, sometimes, the most important numbers the readers should review.  GoCollect gives you more than just a guide for the price of the book.  The first appearance of Miles Morales is not that rare.  Right now 8,636 issues have been graded.  That means that 11.7% of the TOTAL number of books have been graded and that a total of 3,663 sales have been documented in the GoCollect data.  Reviewing the data also indicates that 4,918 copies graded have a total grade of either 9.6 or 9.8 (57% of the total number of books graded). How many books exist raw that could also obtain that grade?

Golden Age/ Silver Age Comparison

Readers’ Points:

eyJidWNrZXQiOiJnb2NvbGxlY3QuaW1hZ2VzLnB1YiIsImtleSI6ImRhYzRjOTc5LTY2ZDYtNGVkYy05MDkxLTY3ODQ4OWQ4Mzg1OS5qcGciLCJlZGl0cyI6W119-217x300 Ultimate Fallout #4: My Argument for not InvestingOne reader presented an argument based upon the Silver Age replacement of known characters.  The reader stated that years from now no one will remember Peter Parker.  I realized that the same could now probably be applied to Golden Age Green Lantern Alan Scott.  When you mention the name Green Lantern people now think of Hal Jordan, John Stewart, Guy Gardner, Kyle Rayner, Jessica Cruz, and Simon Baz.  How many truly remember the very first hero to use the name Green Lantern.  This was an argument that seems to be on point.  As new generations come new people assume the mantra of cultural icons that have survived for generations.

Rebuttal:

There is one problem with the theory that more people will remember Miles Morales as Spider-Man than do Peter Parker.  The problem is that fewer and fewer younger people are buying comic books.  Go to any comic book store or auction and you will see the age demographic shifts to the older generations.  Even if more people MAY identify Miles Morales as Spider-Man, how many of those people will be comic book collectors.  Even fewer will be able to pay for a common modern book that exceeds $1,000. People buying Ultimate Fallout #4 are older investors.  They are investing because this is the new Spider-Man so this book “SHOULD” be valuable.   I think I heard that before with the first appearance of Miguel O’Hara.  Fool me once….

So, Readers:

I made my arguments before and you responded.  I have taken your points and researched your rationale.  As said in the movie “A Knight’s Tale, “…You have been weighed; you have been measured, and you have been found wanting.”  I ask the readers what you now think. Do you agree with my rebuttals? More important is what do you think is a “correct” FMV for the regular edition of Ultimate Fallout #4?  I await your replies.

Great material awaits! Be sure to check out GoCollect on Youtube!

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35 comments

Barry January 18, 2021 - 6:46 pm

Good article…..i get your point but what say you about UFO #4 9.8 1:25 selling last friday on ha.com for $14400? Oh and another for almost same price on eBay this morning? IF we are strictly talking the common reg cover….yes too many not much room…..but variant is worth more now than a ASM #129 9.8 White pages!!!!…..do I agree with it…..hell no…..full disclosure i own a 1:25 9.8….happy absolutely….but confused…..very confused. if the variant beats out the Xmen giant 1…..i might be pissed a little….no way this should happen…..but it is. Hell of an investment short and long term….variant only.

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Joesph Overaitis January 18, 2021 - 7:46 pm

I agree with you. I think people are getting in on these books without doing research. If the Variant beats Giant Size X-Men what will you do? Sell and buy GSX or …?

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Harry Stone III January 18, 2021 - 6:52 pm

I think you have a giant blind spot on this one. Race doesn’t have to be central to the story in order for a character’s race to be important to readers. In fact its appreciated that race isn’t the focus of the stories just like it isn’t the focus with white super heroes. I think the lack of emphasis on his race as opposed to characters of color before him is exactly why Miles Morales is so relevant. Instead of focusing on his race, we get to see that he is just like any other kid struggling with school, his family and his love life. No one is looking for the blaxploitation comics of years past.

Representation matters. When I was a kid, characters like Miles simply didn’t exist or get the lime light. As a Puerto Rican male from New York City, I can attest to the fact that Miles mere existence makes him important and is appreciated. The way he speaks, the way he dresses, the phrases his family uses, while subtle, are all reflections of people that have typically been overlooked period let alone in comics. Prior to Miles, did you ever see a super hero’s mother scream at him in Spanish while he’s wearing Air Jordans? I didn’t. While it may not be central to the stories themselves, his culture as a person of color in New York City is central to his character. That being said, the very last issue did discuss the name Jefferson Davis as problematic. These issues do come up in his storylines, they just aren’t the focus of every single issue. Nor should they be.

Also, demographics in the country are changing. Hispanics such as Miles are on track to be the largest ethnic group in America. In years to come, keys reflecting diversity are going to increase in FMV in order to reflect the interests of a changing country. Marvel has a made an effort to bring in readers of color. Successfully. Miles is the figurehead of that effort. More readers of color means more investors of color. More investors of color means keys such as Ultimate Fallout 4 will grow even more with time.

I think a lot of investors are missing out on great opportunities because they are unable to appreciate what characters such as Miles mean. For instance, Luke Cage is the first African American to have a solo title. A 9.0 currently is 900 dollars. This issue is painfully undervalued considering the historical significance of the issue, his popularity in comics and on screen, and his central role in numerous crossover events. Don’t expect this to last forever as the country and world keep changing.

And lets be honest, Peter Parker hit a wall a long time ago. In Nick Spencer’s new run, none of the books have popped minus #55 with its Gleason cover. Peter Parker has gone stale. Miles Morales is the fresh start for Spider-Man and he WILL be the new face for decades to come. He has room to grow and evolve as a character as a story like his has never been told before. His current series has books blowing up left and right and variants of his first appearance are explosive to say the least. His current series is also very clearly geared towards younger readers. I’d also bet my life that he has a live action film sooner than later.

If you want to say Ultimate Fallout 4 is a poor investment because there are a lot of copies out there and its currently overvalued, I can appreciate that. Undoubtedly the book has been hyped, but this is one instance where I think the hypebeasts got it right. Miles Morales is the most important comic book character since Venom, maybe Wolverine. Maybe even the last 50 years. If Deadpool’s first appearance can pull in over 1k with hundreds of thousands of copies, I see 0 reason Miles shouldn’t considering the much lower print run and the likelihood he is the next generations Spider-Man. UF4 is an excellent long term hold.

For arguments sake, can you name a bigger character for people of color whose first appearance is still accessible? The Black Panther ship has obviously sailed. He also is from a made up magical kingdom, whereas Miles is from New York and relatable.

Long story short, Miles Morales taking on the mantle of Spider-Man is a watershed moment in comics and our culture. I can’t think of anything comparable, hence the prices.

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Joesph Overaitis January 18, 2021 - 7:44 pm

Harry Stone III

But should people be investing in UF#4 only because of race? I was called out Harry because people believed I did not believe in the character because of his race only and that I hated this book because of that fact. I was called a right wing conservative for my UF#4 after being called a left wing liberal for another article. Miles is someone you can relate to is great. The question I ask though is that people say to invest in this book because of that fact he is a minority? Miles again may be the next Spider-Man but people out here think because he is a reflection of society that mere fact alone makes this book again investment worthy and a long term hold. It was the same reason some people told me to by Amadeus Cho. Hulk now had an Asian-american alter ego so this book must be hot. Ignore all other facts and put this as a long term hold along with UF#4

“More readers of color means more investors of color. More investors of color means keys such as Ultimate Fallout 4 will grow even more with time.” I hate to think that Marvel would make this assumption because it seems to imply that the thing Marvel has to do to attract buyer is again to make them reflections of society only.

On Monday, January 18, 2021 I am reminded….

“I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character.”
I think it better that Marvel produces good products and that minority investors will make purchases based upon that and not merely because a character’s race, sexual orientation, or gender identity. If not Marvel will just assign every character a different identity to try to make the books investment worthy. This is pandering for the sake of profit.

I agree with you that the first appearance of Luke Cage is undervalued. I also believe in my suggestions are also undervalued. For those that want to buy a book ONLY because of the race of the character being important in their selection, I believe those books and your suggestion are much more important than UF #4 if you are investing in a book because of the significance of race.

And Harry…DO NOT GET ME STARTED ON DEADPOOL… I May not believe in buying UF#4 because of because people believe the race component is the only reason to by the books and to ignore and the numbers…but the first appearance of Deadpool!!! UGH!!!!!

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Harry Stone III January 18, 2021 - 8:45 pm

Definitely not calling you a right wing conservative and I apologize for being long winded. I know its a sensitive subject too so kudos on diving into it.

I agree with you that Marvel doesn’t dwell on his race which is EXACTLY why he is important. While previous titles and characters of color emphasized such, Miles Morales was able to give us a good old fashioned story about a kid from Brooklyn without focusing on his background. Its secondary, while this was never the case before. Miles Morales, the Black Panther movie, etc showed Marvel they could make money telling stories reflecting the way the country actually looks. Stan Lee had discussed how having people of colors headlining titles simply wasn’t profitable. Morales opened the door for any similar characters that come after him, which is why I think Ultimate Fallout 4 is such a milestone. He is the first character of color that didn’t feel like pandering.

People don’t want to be judged on their race. But they do want to be acknowledged. Marvel failed more often than not before Miles Morales because they pandered and offered up mediocre stuff. Hes a quality character, which is why I think his first is succeeding where others have failed.

As for the investors of color, that isn’t an assumption by Marvel. This is something I have come across in my personal experiences and conversations. People are happy to finally be represented in comics. The Black Panther movie and Miles Morales have brought tons of readers of color. Tahanesi Coates is writing multiple titles. People will buy titles that reflect who they are. That’s simply human nature. I’ll be perfectly upfront, I have multiple copies of this book and the second prints. My point in bringing up the significance of Miles is I knew how important he was way before UF4 blew up while many people still thought of it as pandering.

People do invest in history. I think its a historically significant book that will change comics in years to come. Outside of his cultural significance, people should invest in Miles Morales because he’s dope. He’s not going anywhere. If people invested strictly based on race, Misty Knight and White Tiger keys would be soaring. They aren’t. Miles is a departure from these characters.

Another example for comparisons sake, let’s take a look at ASM #300. A 9.8 is $4500. UF4 is currently at $975. So if were going to compare it to other keys from the last 30 years, considering the importance and popularity of Miles, is UF4 where it should or could be? If were looking to make smart investments, we have to look at all the factors. Unfortunately race is still one of them. I could see this book hitting 2k sooner than later just based off of Copper Age numbers.

Don’t mind me btw, I’m a nerd and appreciate the discussion.

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Joesph Overaitis January 18, 2021 - 10:38 pm

Harry Stone III

I love the nerd in ya LOL. This column was written in response to those comments. The far right comment was again from another reader. It amazed me that from articles I wrote I could be accused in messages of being an ultra right wing conservative one minute and then accused of being a far left leaning liberal the next. Those thoughts though made me write about this topic. The reason that everyone tells me to invest in Miles scares me. Kids were not reading Miles in the comic book but in actual books and that scares me because will his first appearance matter to a possibly dwindling market. People buying copies of the book were people who bought it only for Mile’s race. Spider-man was a minority. Buy it for this point alone people said at auctions. As you said if race was so important it would be a major theme in the book but it is not because it really does not matter to the stories. Miles can be anyone. As you said that is what makes it a good read in that it downplays race and that is why I was confused by people who said race is the reason to buy the book. That thought scares me because of Alpha Flight 106. Multiple copies were scooped up because of the importance of the issue. There were people like you who had multiple copies and yet was the demand really there to begin with?

Harry I want to ask the nerd in you a big concern that has always been there for me and you kind of revealed it. You have multiple copies of the issue. Everyone I talk to has multiple copies of the issue because it is supposed to be the next big issue book. I went to comic-cons and seen dealers with multiple copies on their walls. FOMO? Forget identifying with the character for this hypothesis…Do you think it possible that there are so many investors out there buying multiple copies of this book hoping it is the next big thing that the price is artificially increased? I had one person on another board say that he was scooping up comics so that when the kids finally could afford these books he would see great returns. If there are so many waiting to dump books later could this be a potential problem?

PS
I really hate that pandering for profit is a possibility. I hated when people bought Shuri 1st appearances from the death of Mr. Boseman. I seen people buy any character because they were a minority and bypass the story. I loved the Blue Marvel LS. I love how Sentry incorporated mental illness in the story. Buying a book only because the character is a minority. UGH!!!! For me it is like buying a bad car and painting it a different color. If the character stinks it does not matter the color of their skin (MLK Reference).

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Harry Stone III January 19, 2021 - 4:57 pm

There are definitely a lot of these out there but not nearly as many as many Copper and Modern books with print runs in the hundreds of thousands. Those books, as cool as they are, often hit prices north of UF4 based off of cover art alone and no one bats an eye. I always wonder why people pick on Miles considering the ridiculous FMV of some other comics. If we look at issues like Hulk 340, Batman 423, NM 98, ASM 316, ASM 361, I would say UF4 is at a fair FMV considering their prices and the demand for his first appearance.

Are there people sitting on multiple copies? We’re all collectors so we hoard by nature so that’s a factor to consider. But the same can be said about any hot comic right? I have multiple copies of ASM 300 and 316 since they’re two of my favorites since I was a kid. I’ve definitely written about manufactured scarcity with newsstands. But at this point what would be the goal of sitting on copies of UF4? The book quadrupled in a year, so I’d imagine a lot of those withheld books made it to market in the last 12 months. That’s a solid flip. If I didn’t love the book as much as I do I’d definitely have sold mine. I don’t see UF4 going much higher this year minus a movie, which for all we know could be Spider-Man 4 or something. So maybe some people are still holding on? I don’t think the copies sitting out there are enough to significantly water down prices.

I do want to say this though. I guess its all about your investing goals right? I don’t treat collecting like day trading. I try to go for longer term holds. Only UF4 has broader cultural significance and I think that will be reflected in the price in years to come. Anyone thinking a late printing of the first appearance of Venom 3 or any of the above should be be worth more than UF4, you’re missing the bigger picture. Miles is NOT another pandering character. He is NOT another Spider-Man derivative or Spider-Verse character, stated in another comment. Out of all of the comics I mentioned, UF4 is the top of my list because of how important it is. It might lose or gain a little value this year or next, but I think it has already achieved blue chip status as a reliable long term hold.

Miles opened the door for a new Marvel Universe that they’re already starting to build with Starling etc. A more inclusive, representative one which will be around for decades to come. Marvel needed to change and he is the catalyst. He isn’t just a minority character to invest in, which is definitely happening I might add. He is a well developed and cool character that happens to be African-American and Hispanic. I don’t think anyone should invest in him just based on his race. At the same time, its impossible to ignore the significance of Miles and what he means to people and to comics. Miles is important for several different reasons.

People invest in history. I love Golden Age comics just because of what they represent, the start of comic books. How many people really love the Fantastic Four or Namor? Not so many. But they will buy FF1 because thats the birth of the Silver Age or FF4 because that is when the Golden Age was introduced in the Silver Age. They invest in Captain America being reintroduced from the Golden Age in Avengers #4. They will invest in Marvel using Miles Morales as a cornerstone of a new Marvel Universe. Either that or no one will know who he is in ten years and I’m flat wrong LOL.

Joesph Overaitis January 19, 2021 - 6:04 pm

Great job. If I may ask but two simple questions LOL

Do you think the other influx of characters could lessen his importance to people who believe in him like you?
Do you think this book has reached its maximum FMV without a MCU appearance this year?

Curious

Harry Stone III January 20, 2021 - 8:00 pm

1- No. He is Spider-Man. Spider-Man is the most important character in Marvel. The most important thing about Miles is that he has taken on the mantle of Spider-Man. That makes him unique unless Marvel completely botches it. And it is Marvel, so that is a 50/50 chance.

2. My gut tells me it will hit 2k since it just jumped another 500 his week. Maybe even 2500 this year. I think it will come back down again first, I would try and grab it on a dip.

Just for the sake of clarity, I think Miles is an extremely important character and UF4 is a great long term hold so we might disagree there. But I refuse to chase books that increase in value 50% in a week. No way I would touch UF4 right now at $1500. It just isn’t stable enough and I’d rather go play poker if I’m in the mood to really gamble. I can’t justify most of the prices we’ve seen in the last year. Maybe at $800 or $900 I’d pick this up. So when it comes down to it we agree on the bigger picture. There are just so many other undervalued books out there I’d rather grab that are being overlooked. Miles deserves the attention but this ship has sailed for the time being.

I wrote an article last year about everything hitting weird record prices during the pandemic for a variety of reasons. I think the whole market is due for a correction unless we really have that many new collectors. Marvel movies and video games might have made these records the new normal, but they aren’t anything new, so what happened last year?

Everyone is on their phones right now. Anything that shows up on everyone’s favorite comic collecting app is bad news in my opinion. I generally agree with a lot of their predictions but I think we have a chicken and the egg scenario over there. For instance, I agree Daredevil #1 was undervalued. But we see a post on the application then 1 month or 6 months later it hits record prices. Is the record price because it was that undervalued or because it made it on a speculation list or was mentioned in a hot list? While some of those books were due for corrections, I don’t think their current FMVs are sustainable. It has happened with several other books, Ultimate Fallout 4 and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Adventures 1 among them. GoCollect posts require reading and there isn’t an application at everyone’s fingertips with alerts. Our posts don’t affect the market all that much.

It’s might be an entirely other conversation, but we’ve seen how dangerous social media has been in the last four years. I think that is bleeding into collecting between KC and Instagram, a haven for pumping and dumping by internet sellers. There is 0 nuance much of the time, people get pointed at a comic and they run to it. Prices soar. So, I do think we’re seeing some of that with Ultimate Fallout 4 right now. Again, important book, but getting a little too much hype right now for my taste unless you plan to stick it in a safety deposit box for 10 years. I definitely would avoid putting my money into TMNT as a side note. I think everyone forgets they caused their own comic crash in the 80s and most issues were worthless for 30+ years until 2020. Or, the market has completely changed and comics are like the clothing brand Supreme.

I do think GoCollect is having it’s own effect on the market though. CGC populations and fair market value are readily accessible to everyone now. Even casual collectors are searching around on GoCollect. If a comic is undervalued, has a low CGC population, or both, chances someone figured out in the past year and its taken off. For instance, last year I was looking around on GoCollect at Marvel Team Up 131, the first appearance of White Rabbit, thinking it was a cool, weird first appearance to have. Apparently I’m not the only one who thought so with the recent prices we’re seeing.

So bigger question I guess, what do you think happens when everyone isn’t stuck at home anymore gambling on comics? Do you think UF4 and everything else will take a tumble? I think UF4 can weather the storm in the long run, I wouldn’t say that for most. I’d rather put my money into a UF4 than some of the newsstands I’ve watched get hyped.

Trent Wolodko January 18, 2021 - 6:57 pm

“an elderly Isaiah Bradley appearing is not an out-there idea”

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Joesph Overaitis January 18, 2021 - 7:50 pm

Trent

I made that suggestion a long time ago. Then I checked IMDB. It amazes me that he has not been listed as a character yet…but when he does might be wise to get that book.

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Earl Thomas January 18, 2021 - 7:31 pm

I think you’re right and I refuse to buy one even though I can afford it.There’s so many out there that it’s just not that important to me

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Joesph Overaitis January 18, 2021 - 7:53 pm

Earl

Many books have numbers that do not make sense. People tell me to buy these books because of one reason or another. If the numbers do not make sense it scares me.

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Bryan Climer (@Revarien) January 19, 2021 - 2:50 am

My one comment on this, and I think it weighs heavily in favor of UFO4: When (not IF, because it WILL happen at SOME point), Tom Holland stops being spider-man in the MCU – I don’t think they’re gonna put Peter Parker back in right away with a diff actor… it’ll be Miles. And personally, I think they’re WAY more likely to have a concurrent Miles and Spider-Verse the heck out of things… That animated movie did WAY too well, and Slott put out so much Spider-Verse content that they have a bunch to work with. Soon as Miles hits the MCU, this thing will go off the rails imo.

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Joesph Overaitis January 19, 2021 - 9:28 am

Bryan

Your comment is a good one. It deviates from people suggesting to buy it for other reasons and goes to the tried and true suggestion of buying a book because it might one day appear in the MCU. Again though people who have that book will dump it on the market. This process will be different though from other spikes in MCU first appearance comic books in that this will be the first time the book is readily available. Dr. Strange, Hulk, Spider-Man, Thanos, and others all had first appearances in the bronze age and earlier. The demand may go up but the supply of books is already there too. Many speculators believed that eventually Parker would be replaced by Miles because he would increase the diversification of the MCU. Nothing wrong with that. The problem for investors is when dumps of books occur. How many will be buyers and not sellers?

Bryan in your opinion is there a price that this book becomes too expensive looking at the numbers? How much would you be able to pay for a copy if it did spike? I am in that age where I bridge younger and older collectors. Younger collectors believe in the character but may not have a lot of funds to invest in this book if it spikes. Older collectors may have the funds but not the desire to buy this book because they believe it is not worth it because it is too recent. If you were not selling but buying how high could you go? I am curious because this is the first time people are paying large sums of money on a recent character.

PS the same argument I believe applies to Deadpool LOL.

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Just Pele January 19, 2021 - 8:00 am

I own a comic shop and I bought 25 copies of UF 4 to grade and sell, and after it went parabolic I sold nearly all of my copies (over half were graded 9.8, after a good press) and bought comics that I believe will actually hold value over time. Those who collect comics based on characters’ superfluous attributes, like race, gender, or sexual orientation, rather than their stories and heroic traits, are setting themselves up for disaster, this is clear based on sales of the comics themselves.

A couple decades from now no one will care about 80% of the Spider-verse characters, because they have little or no substance to them, they just tick boxes to fill diversity quotas. It’s the very same problem facing new comics, as few books sell over 20k copies now, because they’re written to fulfill agendas, not to tell great, heroic stories.

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Joesph Overaitis January 19, 2021 - 9:17 am

Just Pele

I think that Miles may be an good character. The problem as I see it as people are buying this book for all the wrong reasons. Instead of natural classic stories that feature minority characters it seems if everything is forced. Buyers too are looking for the “next hot minority hero” as if they are ordering food to go. This creates an artificial bubble. Prices get inflated. Miles 1st appearance I believe is too high right now. Other books are getting the same boost. Its like any product. Someone succeed and the market is flooded with copycats. After a while the market will correct itself. UF#4 is one I fear is going to correct itself in a big way and then a lot of people holding this book might be in for a sad day.

A trend that is being seen in these comment sections is people owning multiple copies.
You purchased 25 copies. It seems that everyone is buying this book in bulk and that scares me big time because what if everyone starts to sell this book and there are not enough buyers.

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Matt Kennedy January 19, 2021 - 1:34 pm

Harry Stone spoke well to the point of how the character is written is secondary to what Miles Morales represents, but you kind of make a point for scarcity in mentioning that modern comic books have relatively low circulation. Since those UF#4’s were polly-bagged, 9.8s are a limited commodity that will eventually (and seemingly already have) outpaced demand, so the argument here shifts to the investment potential of high-grade books for the long term.

I don’t think one needs to have pronounced political affiliations to be blind to this book’s appeal when that appeal is (in some cases) inherent to inclusivity, and the veracity of that impact is rooted in an individual investor’s culture. We are seeing that right now with Brazilian Wonder Woman, so we have a newer example of a single fanbase influencing the market.

But the most important aspect to the Miles Morales phenomena is unaddressed in your article, so here goes:

The Spiderverse movie and subsequent comic reboot has nothing to do with why Ultimate Fallout #4 is continuing to rise in price. It was the release of the Spider-Man: Miles Morales PS5 video game. Like Sony’s animated film, which did a much better job than the comics of fleshing out the character, the video game is exceptionally well plotted. Comics are a non-issue to most adolescents who flock to buy new video games on the reg, but a high-enough percentage (because of the overall enormity of video games sold versus comics) may still want a valuable totem that connects them via investment to the characters that they love. This is bringing non-collectors into the hobby (including game designers, who are proud of their work) who now want to own the first media appearances of these characters. When several 9.8 Marvel Previews are commanding the same (and higher) price as the actual in-cannon first appearances, we have to recognize the influence within the hobby of collectors with a different preference. We must also recognize the visceral impact of playing a character and experiencing the narrative as opposed to reading it. The level of engagement is exponentially higher, which is why video games are having a price manipulating impact on our hobby now, and will evermore continue to do so. Video games that are as massively successful as the PS5 Miles Morales games are undeniably going to serve as beta-testers for which characters get screen time – be it small or big screen. When the video game version of the Tinkerer finally enters the comics continuity that character is going to be Spider-Gwen huge, because this video game character is the Miles Morales equivalent of the Green Goblin.

While many comic prices ebb and flow depending upon the overall economy, if we are limiting ourselves to the speculation of a crash in Miles Morales prices within the direct relativity of comic book prices in general, I don’t see it. It may plateau, but it’s going to continue to grow. Like all stocks, there will be some books that see spikes that allow for sounder investments,. But it’s not like buying an Ultimate Fallout #4 in CGC 9.8 is a losing proposition at today’s FMV.

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Joesph Overaitis January 19, 2021 - 3:00 pm

Matt

I appreciate your comments. I see that this is your first approved so thank you for the post. I love different viewpoints because it allows for a discussion and to see perspectives that may differ from our own.

On these boards many have recently said they are collecting multiple issues waiting to sell so do you think that this could impact the demand in that a few collectors may have control of many issues?

Also do you think your sector that see Miles Morales in a different medium exist in such numbers to influence the comic book marketplace with their interest. I have never thought of your example so I wonder if you could flesh it out a little more.

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Matt Kennedy January 19, 2021 - 4:01 pm

Well Joe, I think it’s safe to say that the sum total of people who comment on these boards is at best in the 5% or lower of all people on this site, which is in turn a very small percentage of the comic book collecting community. The percentage of investment class collectors may be a point or two higher, but even that is going to be single digits in the vastness of all who say they buy graded books as an investment (instead of as a hobby). That’s just the nature of things. There is a lot of data available on the frequency of online engagement.

But even if the census numbers genuinely reflect that 10% (a massive number by any investment metric) of the 9.8s are owned in multiples by collectors, it doesn’t change the culture of sales. The price would only decrease if all of those collectors went to market at the same time with all their inventory of this item. And for the price to drop as a result of this, the supply would have to outpace the appetite for all of those suddenly available comics. The odds of either happening has got to be extremely low, but the odds of both happening simultaneously is exponentially less likely, especially when this comic continues to sell and break previously established sales records fairly regularly across various printings and incentives. There is no shortage of this book on eBay, and yet they continue to sell.

Speculation became a dirty word back in the 90s when people outside the hobby started ordering longboxes of every new issue of Valiant and Image comics which manipulated those circulation numbers into excesses that helped crash the industry (sort of), which resulted in a marketplace correction. The circulation numbers went way down and continued to do so to the point that pre-sales determine a legitimate scarcity of any book that isn’t well-hyped in advance. When those comics exhibit a staying power, the comic shop regulars recognize before Johnny and Suzy Q Citizen that the prices are.on the rise. And every auction that yields a new apex price influences the market back down to street level.

With comic books supplying the intellectual properties of the billion dollar film and gaming industry, the comics themselves are now benefiting from the million dollar marketing and advertising campaigns behind these blockbuster films, shows and video games. That created not just a niche value but a pop culture value that is not relegated to niche hobbyists. Regular people are being bombarded with the notion that comics are valuable but still aren’t converting into regular readers. But they are becoming interested in owning key issues. It is reflected in the auction houses but also at the LCS level. It is the combination of “regulars” and “tourists” (for lack of a better term) that is causing the pricing to skyrocket across the board from Golden Age to last week’s variants.

The key factor in how “outside” buyers influence the market is whether or not the price points are replicated, and lately they have been (as evidenced by the prices attained by multiple.9.8 copies of Marvel Previews #95 and recent sales of Ultimate Fallout #4). And this in the middle of what should be a bear market. Even something as relatively over-printed as the first Punchline cover on Batman #92 or first solo story in Joker 80th Anniversary #1 is significantly rarer than Batman Adventures #12 or New Mutants #98, and while it may be a year or two before they start to become significantly more valuable, as soon as Punchline gets added to a videogame her trajectory is set. And that character is not a cultural touchstone in the tradition of Miles Morales. So to be honest, it only takes two sales to massively impact the perceived value of any editioned item, and almost any LCS in California can attest to the uptick in sales of slabs to people who aren’t their regular subscribers and who aren’t buying new comics. So where are those new buyers coming from? They are a product of the zeitgeist that has turned these characters into bullion dollar intellectual properties. They are streaming service subscribers and video gamers, and when you look at the profit-to-cost among the two, video games are the clear winner.

We are at the first swell of the next big wave right now. That influence is growing, it will continue to grow, and it is already impacting the market. More people are watching Wanda Vision than ever bought the Vision and the Scarlet Witch mini-series – which is probably cubed the number of people who read Tom King’s Vision. That’s what’s behind the upward trend in comic values associated with the characters introduced therein. It’s a demand by people outside the current “collector” base. Because let’s be honest: West Coast Avengers was an atrocious comic. A slab with indication that the book within it is the first appearance of this or that hides the fact that those comics were literary garbage that frequently weren’t particularly well drawn, either. But the stabbed book as an object transcends that. And comics with first appearances on covers are going to continue to become more and more valuable since the slabs can’t be opened. They provide a provenance of sorts that is easy for the layman to appreciate.

Whether or not that new type of buyer is a large or small demographic is secondary to the fact that at least a few of them are already manipulating pricing on certain key books. Comics with ties to the MCU are appreciating faster and higher than comics with ties to new story arcs. That’s all the proof you need that it is motion media that has been driving his car for the past few years.

I work in entertainment and in fine art and my clients run the gamut from actors and soundcloud rappers to union electricians, motion control operators and digital fx animators. They hang slabs on their walls next to Warhol, sports memorabilia, signed records and guitars, and original movie posters. Pop Culture is bigger than the average comic fan, but their knowledge makes them best able to spot the next blue chip collectible, so I encourage everyone to buy back-up copies of the big keys including but not limited to Ultimate Fallout #4.

Because Miles Morales is an idea whose time has come. And there is no putting that genie back into the bottle. We saw the first tipping point back before the first Spiderverse move, the second tipping point after the PS5 game, and we haven’t even seen him in the MCU proper yet. That will be a much bigger event with an appropriate marketplace response.

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Harry Stone III January 20, 2021 - 8:06 pm

Agreed that everyone is dabbling right now and that’s pushing prices higher. Do you think the prices we are seeing are sustainable though? Personally I’m nervous everyone will get bored with comics when everything is back to normal. I think UF4 will be okay in the long run either way like you said, I don’t feel comfortable saying that about a lot of other books experiencing crazy prices. Especially Copper and Moderns with crazy print runs.

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popsequentialism January 20, 2021 - 11:06 pm

In a word: Yes.
But there are caveats.

I think that the prices on Marvel’s Silver, Bronze, and Copper age keys give us a benchmark to measure. This same metric doesn’t exactly work for DC (that’s a whole other series of posts), but it has been pretty consistent with Marvel. And by Marvel, we are not including the properties that fall outside of Kevin Feige’s purview (though some previously filmed characters are about to come into the true canon).

This is all related to the success of Marvel’s motion media of movies, series, and games: Heroes are bankable.

In the MCU, not a single HERO who has appeared on film has had a steep decline in the value of their first appearance. There have been slight ebbs and flow, but after every Guardians of the Galaxy movie the first appearances of each character have skyrocketed then settled (after sales start to far exceed FMV), but then skyrocketed again and dropped less when another movie comes out. Rocket Raccoon is still a very underrated character since there are so many solo and spin-off possibilities. Starlord’s first appearance is legitimately rare in high grade. Gamora has all kinds of potential. The caveat here is Drax, but even that caveat has a caveat.

This spec doesn’t work for Villains nor for minor characters, because once they get killed on film, it’s harder to bring them back. That leaves a lot of time for a substantial dive after peak pricing. Iron Man #55 dropped dramatically months after Endgame because it has been seen more as Thanos’ first appearance than Drax’s first appearance. But with Thanos now out of the movies, that book is now at a relatively low point and probably good to buy again since it will now be collected more for Drax than for Thanos. The theory that investing in comics with more than one character as a portfolio diversifying move works best when both are heroes, but buying for Drax and getting Thanos for free is still cool. In that regard, X-Men 129 is an even better multiple-reasons purchase because White Queen isn’t strictly a villain and Kitty Pride is bound to enter the MCU at some point. I don’t think either book will ever get cheaper than they are right now.

Second caveat: Variants.

Variants are also not immune to marketplace fluctuation. In the case of multiple first-print variants, it’s definitely a detriment to the short-term value spike, but there is usually one that is so much better than the rest that it takes off fast and then levels out quick. And in the case of the Ultimate Fallout Djurdjevic variant (currently fetching $10,500 +) we already have evidence that the comparative value is limited when compared to the value of the standard edition; it would be smart to sell it and buy 10 standard 1st printings (and a 3rd printing) with that money, because demand for the issue at any cost has outpaced the need to own the rarest version. In other words, it has already proven to be less valuable than the ratio would suggest.

Since it is a 25:1 variant, shouldn’t it be worth 25 times as much as the standard cover? But it isn’t, so the invented scarcity of the incentive showcases a big problem overall with actual (rather than perceived) value of variants. It’s not a great investment because it has less room to grow than the standard and reprints. And regarding the amount of copies available, how many more ungraded books that are ten years old or more are going to earn a 9.8? The idea that there are thousands or even hundreds of yet-ungraded 9.8s in waiting is a fantasy. The potential for ungraded NM+ books to get damaged increases always. And books with black covers are a nightmare to keep in 9.8, so we can basically predict that most of what’s out there at 9.8 now is close to the sum total of what will ever be available.

Miles is a hero. He’s not getting killed any time soon.
He represents, as you’ve eloquently summarized in your posts (which I’ve greatly enjoyed and agree with wholeheartedly) the future of superheroes in media. The value of old comics is no longer solely connect to what happens in new comics. In some ways comic book continuity is only tangentially a factor, and then subject to much speculation and price fluctuation.

Movies and shows and video games are the new indicators and value catalysts. While they’ve all been around for a longtime, let’s face it: Marvel TV Shows still haven’t reached their full potential and Marvel video games only really just got good with Spider-man: Miles Morales, and that has set a high bar that Sony and Disney will demand of every new game.

We are in a whole new world of Videogame sequels that makes Final Fantasy seem quaint. These games are like playable movies, and these characters are our avatars. The Miles Morales game isn’t just another videogame, it’s the turning point for superhero videogames. It’s a much more personal experience than ever it was before and that presents investment opportunities. Can you imagine what will happen to Hulk and Immortal Hulk prices if a Hulk game combines the narrative of Al Ewing with the graphics of PS5? When you take this model outside the Spiderverse, the real potential for early Marvel Keys to match and exceed DC Keys is inevitable, but that only helps modern keys.

Bearing in mind the nostalgia for all things 90s, it wouldn’t surprise me if the filmmakers (and game programmers) who poured their teenage allowance –two quarters at a time, into the X-Men Capcom arcade game at Meltdown Comics (when it was on the north side of Sunset) have helped goose the speculation over the as-yet unannounced Omega Red. There hasn’t been a single actual indicator that Omega Red will be in any scheduled movies, but that was fun character to play back in the day and one who would be absolutely terrifying in a modern PS5 game –one which can be Rated M for Mature and still sell half a millions units for $50 each at launch. That’s the opening weekend equivalent of $315 Million.

The other unspoken truth is that games are more international than movies. When films go big in China, the collector-base there goes frantic and they start buying things quickly and at inflated prices. Most of the market for American Comic books was American until recently. Big ticket prices for true blu-chip books like Action #1, Detective #27, and others are getting an auction boost from Japanese and Chinese collectors who were never a factor before. We haven’t seen their impact as much at the under $10K level yet. That bodes well for a big key like Ultimate Fallout #4 because once it sets records in Asia, all predictions about ceiling prices are are going to move decimal places.

Steven Moore January 19, 2021 - 2:38 pm

I was one of the commentators on the earlier article and continue to believe that current values are sustainable. Miles Morales is, I think, the most important Marvel character since Wolverine and that will help hold values at current levels over some duration. That said, there are a lot of high grade copies out there and that could limit future appreciation (aside from the inevitable one-time spike that will occur when the live action movie is announced). I myself sold my UF4 variant cgc 9.6 yesterday when prices suddenly spiked and the offers just seemed too good to pass up. But it’s actually a tough call whether to buy, sell, or hold and I think that’s what these debates show.

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Joesph Overaitis January 19, 2021 - 2:49 pm

Steven

I remember your previous comments. This book is the one that a lot of people keep questioning and that you get such a wide range of opinions. I have had people who are hoarding these books because they truly believe they will rise in price and others who are selling their stashes because they do not believe it to sustainable. I like that in these comment sections we can have a good dialogue. I have to ask…did you think you would have received those offers before? I ask because you believe in the book but what made you sell? I am dying to know LOL

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Steven Moore January 19, 2021 - 3:05 pm

Partly, it was a diversification issue. I wasn’t comfortable having 25 percent of my “comic net worth” tied up in one issue (I got $4150 for my 9.6 variant). But also I’m ill at ease with the current speculative environment. If there is a bubble and it pops, the “moderns” will drop first and hardest, with little time to react and unload. If that does happen, then yes I’ll be swooping back in to pick up copies of UF4 because I believe it has strong intrinsic long term value. But until then, I am happy to hold on to my one remaining and slightly dinged still-polybagged copy and wait and see what the market brings.

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Joesph Overaitis January 19, 2021 - 6:10 pm

Great sale. and great analysis of why you sold the issue. I wish more investors would diversify their comic book collection instead of tying them up into a couple of key books that could never ever go down.

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Steven Moore January 19, 2021 - 8:41 pm

By analogy, if it’s December 1999 and near the height of the dotcom bubble, you might want to sell your Amazon stock and buy back in two years. Even if you strongly believe in the long term prospects of the company. (And yes, if you check historical prices, the math on this holds)

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Matt Kennedy January 20, 2021 - 9:19 am

For this Amazon stock analogy to be apples-to-apples it would infer that there will be a comic collecting bubble that would result in tanking values for all comics (not just Ultimate Fallout #4), so you’d want to sell everything and then buy it back for dimes on the dollar. But such a scenario also assumes that any catastrophic event that could cause such massive value fluctuation wouldn’t also impact the value of currency. Almost no broker would suggest that you take all of your cash out of stocks because the same economic factors impact currency and stocks simultaneously. They would recommend that you divest of stocks with massively fluctuating historical highs and lows and and pick-up “safer” stocks to ride out the market. Longterm market failures are going to have people fighting over bottled water, canned food and toilet paper, though, so stock up on those.

In other words, what could you buy at equal or less value with the revenue from an Ultimate Fallout #4 sale that is a “safer” bet? It’s ALL speculation with comics, even more so than with stocks. Moving that over into a Werewolf By Night #32 would be risky because an economic shutdown is going to delay production and launch on the Moon Knight Disney+ show and every other Marvel and DC movie or streaming show that isn’t already finished. No hype behind an X-men reboot means prices freeze or stagger on XM#1 and GSXM #1 and every other mutant key. But if there is another entertainment business freeze as we saw last year, people will look to entertainment that is already available and I think the PS5 Miles Morales game comes on top. I think a “bubble burst” under current conditions actually favors the investment potential in Ultimate Fallout #4 more than almost anything else on the market in thr same relative price point.

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Steven Moore January 20, 2021 - 5:59 pm

Hi Matt: Great point–values of stocks and comics are both at historical highs. And there are signs consistent with a bubble in both markets. So what to do? My take is to: 1) recognize that timing the market is really hard and if you take money out too soon, you can lose a lot of potential gains; 2) to identify your riskiest assets and shed those preferentially; 3) think in terms of the whole asset portfolio and make modest, not wholesale, changes. In this case, I felt like my UF4 variant was a tad too high for comfort, and selling that one comic was enough to rebalance my “comics portfolio”. Most likely I will use the $ and other savings to pay off student loans (~4% interest), which is a safe though boring play. Similarly, I’ve moved some (not most) of my stocks into bonds. Small, gradual changes to accommodate what I feel could be some rough waters ahead. If I am wrong, I’m still “in the market” enough to be ok. In terms of modern comics, I’ve still got my Sandmans and Marvel Point One Now #1 and Alias 1, and a polybagged UF4. Sorry to take this off the original topic!

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dave stevens January 21, 2021 - 2:58 am

History says to buy Amazing Spider-Man. It doesn’t really matter what, but keys are smarter than drek. Nothing holds value and increases safely like Amazing Spider-Man issues. Everything else can have its merits at times, but ASM is the gold standard.

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JayPele January 21, 2021 - 12:16 pm

I just want to point out that UF4 is not ASM, however. Miles Morales isn’t the same as Peter Parker and does not have his history or reputation. While he could one day be as popular as Peter, and his own books could sell as well in the future, that’s currently not the case.

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popsequentialism January 20, 2021 - 11:21 pm

I disagree that there are signs consistent with a bubble in the comics resale market, but even if there were, bubbles in the comics market tend to only really impact new books, not vintage books. Let’s not forget that Ultimate Fallout #4 turns ten years old this September.
What was Hulk #181 worth in 1984? I think I bought one for $35.

That said, I think you were right to sell the variant. It has already eclipsed the point where its value appreciates more or faster than the standard version. Variants as a whole are a caveat unless they feature something on the cover germane to the issue itself that is missing from the standard edition (like Winter Soldier on the cover to the Captain America variant).

I think someone else in this thread mentioned that they don’t treat comic collecting like a day trader does stocks, and I think its safe to say that there is much more of a collector mentality to buying and selling comics overall: we are attached to these things aesthetically. It’s almost a miracle that these things can actually pay dividends. That is absolutely due to the introduction of the grading system twenty odd years ago, but that has also taken a lot of the joy out of the hobby. I want a 9.8 Superman Annual 10, but I also want to be able to read it. Can’t have my comic and read it, too, anymore. So whenever selling something you bought cheaply for an amount of money that supplies a means to an end, you’ve won.

Sandman keys are an eventual goldmine. Marvel Point One is another key like Ultimate Fallout 4 that is now and will continue to be a great investment. Alias maybe not so much.

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Joesph Overaitis January 21, 2021 - 11:53 am

I wrote a comment years ago about the grading system and how it would negatively effect comics in the old comic buyers guide. I agree with you on some of the sandman keys.

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JayPele January 21, 2021 - 12:40 pm

10 years is still considered a fairly new comic, in collecting terms. It’s most certainly still a Modern comic and not vintage by any stretch, which is a term typically reserved for comics >25 years of age, and usually (though not always) printed on pulp paper. UF4 will one day be a vintage staple 15-20 years from now, IMO, unless Marvel really messes up the character, but it’s not there yet.

Based on my experience collecting and selling comics since 1979, there will be a continued retracement in this comic’s value, barring a massive push from a new announcement; weekly sales figures have dropped by ~75% and the number of graded copies are still growing at a rapid rate, based on CGC’s own submission numbers. Now, that doesn’t mean values will plummet quickly, many people will refuse to sell their copies for substantially less after seeing its previous, stellar highs, they’ll hold and wait, but other sellers will just put their copies up for auction and hope for the best, and some will just take the latest FMV numbers and put their copies up using BIN for that amount, because they want the cash so they can buy different keys with the money (or to pay bills, pay off their CCs, etc.).

One benefit of the collector comic market is that, like stocks, comics oftentimes DO go parabolic in value overnight, they don’t drop in value with nearly the same quickness, unless the climb was based on a false rumor or a mistake, usually leaving enough time to sell and realize a good ROI, unless the person who has it completely falls asleep at the wheel.

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popsequentialism January 22, 2021 - 10:28 am

In every comic shop I’ve ever been, a comic issued three months ago is considered “old,” but I digress.

Yes, Jaypele, Ultimate Fallout #4 is a Modern Era comic, and to be fair the term “vintage” can be used to identify anything that is dated that isn’t technically brand new –but I get your point. It seems, however, that you missed mine. The takeaway wasn’t the definition of the word “vintage” as “ten years old”, it was that when Hulk 181 was ten years old I bought a NM copy for $30 and look what that is worth now. Another example: ASM 300. Look at what that cost in 1998–or ten years after it was initially published, as compared to now. In a relative comparison, using two or more characters of similar popularity, we have a baseline. And again, it’s important to discern between 9.8 graded copies and basically everything else. Sure, people will continue to submit these books until a large majority of the circulation are graded, but not many more will receive 9.8s from CGC, CBCS, or whoever else enters the game. Certainly not more than 10% of what’s already out there, and probably a lot less than that. The top tier of books with a lot of black ink on the edges is finite, special, and of higher demand than every tier below it, and frequently at inordinate rates of difference.

The sum of all the comments which disagree with Joe’s opinion about the investment potential of UF4 should also be seen as a time-stamped rebuttal, because as an aggregate, they disagree with the primary tenet that it was no longer a good investment. So if the comic became more valuable than it was on the day Joe’s article went live, the dissenting opinion to that article will have been proven right, that it WAS still a good investment.

Joe wrote his original article warning about Ultimate Fallout#4 on September, 25th 2020. This thread was his response to the comments he received back then. I think we can all agree that the price rose significantly in the four months since he wrote that. Since the financial market is divided into quarterly filings, and since this is an investment column, whether it peaks in March and crashes in June, he was wrong. But that article has elicited more engagement than ANY of his other posts, so his writing it had a benefit to him, personally. And I don’t think he wrote it to be controversial, I think he just misjudged the market. And that’s fine, because he’s been right about a lot of other things.

Now, not to put too fine a point on this (or to hammer it home), what comic in a similar price point on January 22, 2021 is a better investment right now? GoCollect has the standard edition of UF4 listed at a FMV of $975 in 9.8. Try and find one at that price anywhere. It is a fallacy. The book is easily $100 above that already (and occasionally $400 above that), and so if you CAN find it at FMV it is an excellent investment. But stick to the 9.8s of the standard edition–and not the variant which is proportionally less valuable (25:1 but only 10x more valuable). There is still a LOT of room for growth.

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