If a comic book showed negative returns across the board, with losses at the 3-months, 6-month, and year-long time frames; what might you do, sell? James Wan is directing the new series of Swamp Thing and seems on the correct track with a successful horror background. We are left to wonder, why a downturn when the Swamp Thing TV series is only a few months away in May? I have reviewed price trends for Swamp Thing #1 through five the original comic book series from the 1970s. Additionally, I double checked the first Swamp Thing in House of Secrets #92. Though that book is holding up better than the regular first series comic book it is not immune from this downturn. This issue was created by Len Wein (script) and Bernie Wrightson (pencils).
The House of Secrets #92 has been on an upward trajectory since Wrightson’s death more than a year ago. Since that time it has shown great returns, however, in the short-term, it is starting to wane. Over the last 90 days a funk has settled over the House of Secrets #92:
- The grade (7.5) shows a decline of -5.4% trending return
- The grade (5.0) shows a decline of -10.2% trending return
- The grade (6.5) shows a decline of -6.5% trending return
- The grade (2.5) shows a decline of -2.3% trending return
I looked up the first five comics from the first Swamp Thing series. Some showed a small amount of resistance to declines, others were scary in their continued losses. At this point, the only thing that comes to mind is a limited amount of info on the Swamp Thing. It could be when they start to premiere a trailer that this could change the Swamp Thing direction. Let’s look at the CGC Census and see if we can make “heads or tails” of this convoluted mess.
CGC Census is so small that it almost appears as if more books will appear someday but they probably will not. These are great numbers and give me solace that this investment will hold over at least the next 10 years. Further, the returns on Swamp Thing #2 through five have fallen over the short-haul. I have outlined the obvious grades that have fallen the most for each of these books. Suffice it to say these are not the only negative returns. However, there is a “silver lining” as several of these books show positive returns as well.
- Swamp Thing #2 total CGC books 325; Swamp Thing #2 grade (9.6) is negative at -3.6% 3 months
- Swamp Thing #3 total CGC books 310; Swamp Thing #3 grade (6.5) is negative -25% at 3 months
- Swamp Thing #4 total CGC books 214; Swamp Thing #4 grade (9.2) is negative -20.4% at 1 year
- Swamp Thing #5 total CGC books 213; Swamp Thing #5 grade (8.0) is negative -7.4% at 1 year
Now perhaps these are skewed numbers and the long-term returns will re-assert themselves with renewed vigor. But it goes without saying, why ditch your Swamp Thing when the series has yet to even post a decent trailer? No, I am going to have to call this an aberration. But before you make up your mind please review the loses on the Swamp Thing #1 below:
- Grade (9.6) is negative at -5.6%
- Grade (9.0) is negative at -4.3% at 1 year, and -8.3% at 3 month.
- Grade (7.0) is negative at -39%, and (9.0) grade at negative -8.3% 3 months.
- Grade (6.0) is negative at -35.9% at 3 months.
Either we have ingested some swamp gas or the returns are dipping. Now it is possible that this is merely a pullback on a very popular book, character, and artist. This short-term loss could evaporate and disappear like a body in the bayou. My bet is to simply hold and see where it goes, James Wan has made some pretty solid movies we have to at least give the man a chance to produce. Further, it would be great to see him interpret Swamp Thing from a pure horror perspective. In the end, these books are hard to come by. Better to let them go cold for a few months or even a year. Now is not the time to sell these comics Swamp Thing #1, Swamp Thing #2, and most especially do not sell House of Secrets #92. Besides, there is still no one that draws the macabre like Bernie Wrightson.