The Premium of a 1st print vs 2nd print: Amazing Spider-Man #101

by James Jou

123017_b954fa71943bf25cdc60e88196d0b445db313d8e-199x300 The Premium of a 1st print vs 2nd print:  Amazing Spider-Man #101With the recent fervor surrounding the Morbius movie sending sales prices for the Amazing Spider-Man #101 (1971) soaring sky-high, many speculators that are late to the game might be turning to the 2nd print of the book. They look alike and probably smell alike, but are they alike in market performance?

 

 

658677_097d5d4338a3c035bd8c92ec4d4a9e1d705532e7-193x300 The Premium of a 1st print vs 2nd print:  Amazing Spider-Man #101Looking at the sales data for the Amazing Spider-Man #101 (graded CGC 9.8, representing the top 45.0% of the census), we observe that the only notable event was a spike in prices around winter 2017. This was likely primarily due to the official Sony Pictures announcement of a solo Morbius movie in development. After the spike in sales prices, the market for the 2nd print since has returned to prior levels of the low 100s.

p2_1a-300x180 The Premium of a 1st print vs 2nd print:  Amazing Spider-Man #101

Is this just the typical effects of speculation associated with solo movie fervor? Fortunately, we can look to the sales data of the 1st print. See below for sales at a similar cross-section of the census, CGC 8.0 which is the top 42.3% of the census. The 1st print is in orange, the 2nd print is in blue.

p2_2b-300x180 The Premium of a 1st print vs 2nd print:  Amazing Spider-Man #101

At each price spike, the main difference between the two prints is that the 1st print not only experiences a much higher jump in sales prices but more importantly a sustained higher sales range. The two key events occurred in late 2017 with the announcement of the movie development and in mid-2018 with the titular character’s casting. Notice the two very distinct steps.

With almost half a year until the worldwide release of the movie, it could be a good time to unload any holding of the book as sales prices of movie speculation books tend to decline following the movie’s release; with Morbius, it’s tentatively late July 2020. For someone wondering whether or not the market for the book will continue to go higher after the movie’s release, just keep in mind the sales prices since 2015; the 2015 to 2017 levels, or even the early 2018 levels. It would be a good idea to take some money off the table and move on to the next spec.

Given all of this, one has to wonder, if the solo movie hadn’t occurred, would the 2nd print have performed just as well? See below for a more magnified and focused look at the sales data of the two prints in the three years prior to any movie news. Again, 1st print in orange and 2nd print in blue.

p2_3c-300x180 The Premium of a 1st print vs 2nd print:  Amazing Spider-Man #101

In the 3 years prior, volatility was rather high with a wide sales range, but even with that, the overall trend of the 2nd print was rather flat while the 1st print slowly trended upwards with higher highs and higher lows. Given the market preference for the 1st print over the 2nd print, it’s no wonder the market of the 1st print benefited from movie speculation.

To add insult to injury, although a 9.8 on a CGC slab looks good, if a buyer had instead opted for a CGC 8.0 in early 2015 while the sales ranges had briefly overlapped, the current return on investment would be even more impressive. A whopping $700 difference. There is definitely a market preference for the real McCoy.

 

 

“Instead of curing my affliction, I have made it stronger.” – Morbius

 

 

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