The Deadpool movies are fantastic. Deadpool 2 was a thrilling, silly, entertaining film that helped to push the character and his brand while leaving audiences satisfied. Typically, a successful movie means an uptick in prices, especially for a first appearance of the uber-popular main character...however, after an initial surge in value, we are seeing prices for Deadpool sink.
I am a big fan of the old stock market adage of "buy low and sell high" and that saying penetrates the comic market as well. I am sure we would all love to time the market of a particular comic to our advantage. One thing I have learned when dealing with comics is you have to throw in the x-factor of emotion into any deal. These are characters we love. If you trade in graded comics, then we are dealing with limited resources that have a strong demand and may not hit the open market often. Fair Market Value (FMV) calculations are great, but if you want a comic that is 1 of 5 in existence, and a copy has just come on the market for price X, you have some decisions to make and what is "fair" in the market may not always be what is "real" in the decision.
The first appearance of Deadpool is in The New Mutants #98 from 1991, which also represents the first appearance of Gideon and Domino (Copycat in disguise) for a nice trifecta of prominence. The census data for this comic is saturated with copies at the high end of the scale, with over 3,000 copies graded CGC 9.8. This comic is also one of the most active in the marketplace, meaning there is always a copy for sale, unlike rarer or older books that seldom come for sale. Due to the bevy of activity on this book, the long term trends tend to wash out to near zero as data currently shows prices trending lower between 1%-3% on the upper grades. However, on a micro scale and in real-time, the trends has been a roller coaster over the past several months.
Expectedly, prices started trending upwards prior to the release of the film in May. Copies of New Mutants #98 started pushing from $600 into the $800-$900 range, with Newsstand copies and Signature Series (SS - Gold Label CGC) copies peaked above $1200. The release of the movie saw prices pull back a bit, but remained strong in the opening weeks of its release. Suddenly, a few weeks ago, the market appeared to have dropped out. I witnessed copies selling for a reasonable $700-$800, with SS copies and the occasional Newsstand variant selling for an extremely reasonable $900 range.
The question becomes, is this a permanent trend or time to buy at a market lull? From a speculator's eye, I see a comic that was trading much higher very recently and now seems to have died down due to the hype trailing off. Will Deadpool remain a popular character? Yup. Are they going to keep making these cash machine movies? Well...I think they want to keep making money. So is the character going away...nope...and can I now get his first appearance at a steep discount, or at minimum the same price as prior to the hype...yup. There is value in the New Mutants #98, but it may take until Deadpool 3 to unlock it.
Have any of your favorite comics recently been hit by a market crash? Do you think Deadpool is a solid buy for the long term? Drop your comments and join the conversation.
