speculation update: Ronan the Accuser, The Vanisher

by James Jou

119849_d56b41899341591fa5e66ce4238745c76dffbd68-150x150 speculation update:  Ronan the Accuser, The VanisherLike going through the fast food drive-thru and opening the bag to make sure everything you ordered is there, so that you don’t have to drive all the way home and finally pick out the show you’re going to watch while you eat…only to be disappointed. Checking in on the market for your comic books is always a good idea.

Here we will follow up on the current market for the key first appearance comic books of Ronan the Accuser and the Vanisher. Interestingly, both books display drastically different outcomes.

 

FANTASTIC FOUR #65 (1967)

119849_d56b41899341591fa5e66ce4238745c76dffbd68-199x300 speculation update:  Ronan the Accuser, The VanisherIn his first appearance in Fantastic Four #65, Ronan the Accuser is sent to Earth by the Kree Supreme Intelligence to determine if the Fantastic Four are responsible for destroying their Sentry #459. After a one-sided trial, Ronan reaches a guilty verdict. He fights the Fantastic Four, but is overpowered and sent packing. Sales for the book in the higher grades of CGC 9.0/9.2 and middle 8.0/8.5 (the top 30.3/17.7% and 51.3/41.6%) are shown below.

Without looking up the release dates for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol.1 and Captain Marvel, can you tell when they were released?

rav_1a-300x181 speculation update:  Ronan the Accuser, The Vanisherrav_2b-300x181 speculation update:  Ronan the Accuser, The Vanisher

It’s worth noting that the correlation between movie appearance and Fantastic Four #65’s value is unusually high even when compared to other characters. The speed at which sales prices spiked up and immediately fell back down is quite worrisome. After the lows of 2016, the book’s sales prices were flat for a year, until Ronan the Accuser was again announced to appear in 2019’s Captain Marvel. Unsurprisingly, the prices spiked up again.

If the market behaves anything like the first spike, it’s unlikely that the high prices will be sustained; with a sharp drop likely to occur soon. Sales prices at the middle grades of 8.0/8.5 appear to have started their decline. Prices for 9.0 have stalled its climb. As this bottom follows out, it’s only a matter of time until 9.2 also does. If you’re looking to sell this book, keep a very close eye over the next few months. Assuming no future Ronan the Accuser movie news/appearance, similar performance to 2015/2016 could indicate a loss of a staggering 50% in value by the year end of 2020.

 

 

X-MEN #2 (1963)

116895_3303f92815f9e8e5bb16be199300c9bb48715ada-200x300 speculation update:  Ronan the Accuser, The VanisherThe Vanisher first appeared in X-Men #2, in which he was introduced as a thief who used his teleporting powers to rob banks. Eventually, the X-Men take notice and intervene when the Vanisher threatens to steal secret military plans from the government. Despite the X-Men’s attempt to stop the Vanisher, he manages to carry out his heist and escape. Later, the Vanisher ransoms the plans back to the government, but his luck runs out when the X-Men make a second attempt to stop him.

Below is sales for the book graded in CGC 5.0/5.5 and 7.0/7.5, which represent the top 56.2/46.8% and 26.2/18.9% of the census.

rav_3c-300x181 speculation update:  Ronan the Accuser, The Vanisher rav_4d-300x181 speculation update:  Ronan the Accuser, The Vanisher

From 2015 to the 2018 summer release of Deadpool 2, sales prices for X-Men #2 were on the flat to slightly positive side. This is quite the track record for its ability to retain value; more on this in the next paragraph. Prices finally made a significant move surrounding the marketing and release of Deadpool 2; which included speculation of possible X-Force members from trailers and the comedic cameo of Brad Pitt as the Vanisher in the movie itself. Quite the value return for the minimal movie frames.

The surprising thing here is that after the upward movement due to the movie, sales prices have managed to stay flat. Compared with the sharp drop that Ronan the Accuser’s key comic experienced, the steady prices of the Vanisher’s key comic is a welcome relief. Overall, sales prices have been flat since Deadpool was released. With the flat sales prices in the many years before the movie and the flat sales prices in the year since, it’s highly likely that the flat trends will continue.

 

 

THE BOTTOM LINE

  • Fantastic Four #65 – SELL. High probability that sales prices have hit a short term peak. If it’s anything like its first spike in 2014 around Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 1, it could fall to the pre-Captain Marvel hype lows of 2017; a risky 50% drop in value.
  • X-Men #2 – HOLD

 

 

“You are the accused!” – Ronan the Accuser

 

 

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