Just over seven months ago, Marvel published Black Panther #3, which contained the first appearance of Tosin, a young Wakandan hero. With many speculating that Tosin would become the next Black Panther, this book immediately became a bestseller. Others speculate that he will appear as T’Challa and Nakia’s newborn son in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.
Will Black Panther #3’s run last? I think the short answer is “no.”
Black Panther #3 Has Outperformed the Rest of the Market.
Right out of the gate, raw copies of Black Panther #3 (2022) sold for $10 to $15 on eBay shortly after Marvel published the book. Even though the comic book market has entered a bear market (with most comics losing 20% or more of their current market value), Black Panther #3 outperformed the rest of the market. Six months later, raw copies have sold for $20 to $70. Outperforming the market over the past six months is impressive; however, I don’t think it’ll last.
9.8s Make up 92% of the Universal Blue Labels on the CGC Census.
Even though Marvel published this book only seven months ago in January 2022, there are already 722 CGC 9.8s copies of this book listed in the CGC Census. In addition, 9.8s make up a whopping 92% of the blue labels. Considering it takes CGC approximately four to six months to grade a book and ship it back to you (and twice as long if you ask them to press it too), investors must have shipped hundreds of copies as soon as they rolled off Marvel’s printers.
I also expect that GCC has received hundreds, if not thousands, of copies of this book that they haven’t yet graded in recent months. What does that mean? In six months’ time, we could easily see 2000+ 9.8s on the Census. At this point, supply will likely exceed demand. In other words, if you bought today at $200 (the going rate on eBay), you’d likely lose at least some money on your investment. It’s even scarier for those who have recently paid $1,000 for the 1:25 Taurin Clarke variant.
A Comparable Book Has Not Fared Well.
Could this book maintain its steady rise in value? Perhaps if the MCU introduces him as a character and he becomes a fan-favorite, broadly speaking, among pop culture enthusiasts. But we’ve now seen the limits of the MCU as a driving force behind the rise of comic book values.
Consider the first appearance of Shuri. Although most speculators expect that she will become the next Black Panther, that hasn’t boosted the value of her first appearance in Black Panther #2 (2005). In fact, CGC 9.8 copies of that issue have lost approximately 50% of their value since hitting a peak of over $1100 less than a year ago.
9.8s consist of 45% of the blue labels on the CGC Census, a much more favorable ratio than Tosin’s first appearance. In other words, in terms of value, the future isn’t bright for Black Panther #3, especially when you compare it to Black Panther #2.