Movies drive comic book prices and even the second series of a character can be both positively or negatively impacted by a movie release. Everyone knows this, right? Perhaps, but I am a firm believer in letting the numbers speak for themselves. If movies impact comic books; then we should see higher prices before a movie opens. If movies cause comics to go up before opening day; then they must cause price declines post-premiere as well. To pursue this course of logic we will look at Dr. Strange #1. This comic book was the first appearance of the Mighty Agamotto and Ā Agamotto's Dimension. The Mighty Agamotto was the first Sorcerer Supreme on Earth, a key player in the Doctor Strange backstory.

Frank Brunner's Covers

The cover of this second series for Dr. Strange was done by Frank Brunner. He was the artist for issues #1 thru #5. Bruner's covers are magnificent, look at the Dr. Strange #1 the level of detail in tentacles entwining Strange from the monster in the crystal ball, or the mystic arch behind them. This nuance creates a truly magnificent cover and great work of art. Unfortunately, Brunner only did the first five covers. But Frank Brunner's work can be found in Marvel Comics in Chamber of Chills #2-#4, Giant-Size Man-Thing #4-5 and Marvel Premiere #6, etc. A great deal of his art in comics was the supernatural and his tenure was all too brief. Beyond that, Brunner moved to Hollywood after leaving Marvel and began a career in movie and tv animation. You can spot his work for Hanna-Barbera in Jonny Quest.

 

Dr. Strange #1

This second series has had great long-term returns in most grades. But today I want to look at specific time frames to see if Dr.Strange #1 can conjure up a consistent drop in prices after the movie came out on 11-4-2016? Thus proving anecdotally that movies inflated prices pre-premiere and deflate prices post-premier.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The premiere of Doctor Strange was on November 4th, 2016. This was the U.S. release date.

Pre-movie (Nov 4th, 2015 to Nov 4th, 2016):

Positive Grade Returns +61%

Negative Grades Returns -39%

Post-movie (Nov 4th, 2016 to Nov 4th, 2017):

Positive Grade Returns +18%

Negative Grade Returns -82%

Premise: do movie premieres impact comic book prices?

Conclusion: in the case of Dr. Strange #1; there is a strong correlation between movie premieres and they do impact comic book prices.

 

The one anomaly I noticed in crunching the numbers for this hypothesis was that grade 6.5 appeared in both pre and post-movie with positive returns. It didn't matter before or after the movie this grade had better resiliency than all others including of course 9.8. Perhaps fine plus is the right grade to invest in for security and a guaranteed return. The largest overall decline in returns post-premiere was negative -38.6% in grade 8.0 very fine. Stunning drop, which leads to the next question how do we make money from a decline in price?

Can money be made betting against the movies in the opposite way? In other words, can we time a buy of a typical key comic to the absolute worst returns to purchase at the lowest possible ebb right after the movie has premiered? The answer here is two-fold: only with another catalyst on the horizon, and can you obtain the comic book at enough of a price decline to be profitable. In the example above I believe negative -38% would leave more than enough room to take a stab at the post-premiere blues. You might not always be able to purchase and resell perfectly. But when you do; by the "Hoary Hosts of Hogarth" your bank account will be full of "Strange" green stuff called: money.