SUMMARY

• -Every year, dozens of movies based on comic books are released. In 2018 alone, DC and Marvel saw 6 different titles, with total box office in the billion. Furthermore, new characters outside of the mainstays are being introduced to the general public.

• -Rare books such as Amazing Fantasy #15 or Incredible Hulk #1 will always command high prices. Outside of those, it’s important to note the price spikes in books for novel characters getting the movie treatment. Avenging Spider-Man #9 at a 9.8 sells for $325, New Mutants #98 at a 9.8 sells for $725, Eternals #1 at a 9.8 sells for $1,150.

 

Just how much does a movie adaptation affect a comic book’s value?

Let us examine the case of Venom. A fan-favorite character who finally got his movie debut in 2018. For the sake of argument, the key book for analysis will be his first full appearance, Amazing Spider-Man #300.

 

CHARTS

In the following charts of ASM 300, the sales data includes CGC and CBCS graded books; excludes signature series and PGX. 9.4 and 9.6 are shown together and averaged in the formula. In the CGC census, 9.4 and 9.6 represent 42.6% and 23.1% of the top population, respectively. 7.5 and 8.0 are shown together and averaged in the formula. In the CGC census, 9.4 and 9.6 represent 90.2% and 85.6% of the top population, respectively.

 

COMIC MATURITY STAGES

The speculative life cycle of a comic book relative to movie adaptation can be divided into four distinct stages. The first of which is used as the baseline natural growth.

The natural growth of comic book value prior to the direct impact of official movie news is difficult to establish due to the presence of rumors, unofficial leaks, the fluid nature of movie development, etc. To account for this, the time period referenced for the natural growth is the sales data one year prior to the official movie studio announcement of protagonist casting; which generally includes director attachment and projected release date.

Below, we can see the natural rising sales price of ASM 300.

This natural growth trend is interrupted by the subsequent stages of filmmaking: casting/greenlighting, teaser/trailer release, and theatrical release. Upon achieving each stage, we observe an accelerated appreciation of sales price.

The trend peaks just prior to the movie’s release in theaters. With the most aggressive growth occurring in the period between the first teaser trailer release and the movie’s theatrical release.

 

AFFECT OF MOVIES

  • Without a movie, 9.4/9.6 was projected to sell in Q1 2019 for around $450. Actual sales averaged of $561.5.
  • Likewise 7.5/8 was projected to sell in Q1 2019 for around $225. Actual sales averaged of $325.5.

This represents a 24.8% to 44.7% increase in selling price. Interestingly enough, the 7.5/8 increased at a greater rate.

 

PRICE AROUND EVENTS

Overall, the trend is upward; however within the life cycle of the comic book price there are periods of decline. Most notably, the sell price flattens and even declines following each maturation event.

With the overall upward trend, it’s never too late to buy the book. But if you’re looking for a minor discount, it would be best to wait a few months after each event.

 

THE BOTTOM LINE

Speculating on which comic book gets adapted into a movie offers attractive returns. With Venom, the effect was a noticeable increase in the sell price of Amazing Spider-Man 300. Across the condition grades, the difference was about 24.8% to 44.7% above the natural growth. This offered high returns even if you opened a position after the first few stages.

In future articles, we will explore the characters and key books currently undergoing the comic book movie maturation cycle. Confirmed characters, which includes books such as Amazing Spider-Man #101, Amazing Spider-Man #361, Eternals 1, Special Marvel Edition 15, etc. It is almost a certainty that cbm keys will increase in value, but with greater effort and utilizing the performance of ASM 300, we can potentially project their future value. Instead of a generic “it will go up,” we can have a better idea of a price range.

Trends and past performance can only provide an approximation of how the books may perform in the future. At the end of the day, it’s still down to luck.

 

'The greatest superpower is luck' - Stan Lee