Market Reaction – Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Trailer

by Douglas Ohlandt

121922D-1024x536 Market Reaction - Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse TrailerSony released a new trailer for Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse on December 13, and it was filled with dozens of spider-people. Fans quickly scoured for first appearances. Which of those first appearances were up? Which were down? Let’s take a look and see how the market reacted.

Miles Morales

UltFallout4-195x300 Market Reaction - Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse TrailerMiles Morales is the star of Sony’s animated Spider-Verse films. He’s also, arguably, the number one modern-era character whose first appearance collectors crave. There are a whopping 15,749 graded copies of Miles’ first appearance in Ultimate Fallout #4 in the CGC census.

20 graded copies have sold since the release of the trailer. That’s roughly double the volume that sold in the three days prior to the trailer’s release. Three 9.8 copies sold for an average price of $1,905, down more than 50% from the roughly $4,000 that unsigned 9.8 copies were going for earlier this year.

Based on the trend lines, this looks like a comic that is still priced above the curve despite the huge downgrade in value. It’s impossible to guess the floor for prices, but it’s possible that we could be at or near it based on the popularity of the character.

Spider-Gwen

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Spider-Gwen is Miles’ travelling partner across the Spider-Verse. Her first appearance was in Edge of Spider-Verse #2. There are 6,975 graded copies in the CGC census. As with Ultimate Fallout #4, we see a doubling in sales volume from four graded copies in the three days prior to the trailer’s release to eight graded copies in the three days after.

Five 9.8s have sold in that time for an average price of $1,242. That’s a massive correction from the all-time high of $2,500 set in a fixed-price eBay sale on November 5. This book has been on a bit of a roller coaster: $435 average price in April 2020 to $1,900 average in May 2021 to $957 average in October 2021 to $2047 in April 2022 to $1,200 in October 2022, and then all the way up to that $2,500 price.

Hard to say if you’ll be able to pick one up at the bottom of a swing, but this is one you’ll want to track before purchasing.

Spider-Woman

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Spider-Woman looks to be playing a major role in Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, although looking much different from the Jessica Drew we see in the comics.

Eight graded copies of her first appearance in Marvel Spotlight #32 have sold since the release of the trailer, again doubling the number (four) that sold in the three days prior. The highs were an 8.5 with off-white to white pages and an 8.0 with white pages both selling for a slashed $250. Both are down considerably from their respective highs: 8.5 – slashed $675 in July 2021, 8.0 – slashed $500 in August 2021.

It’s hard to say that this book will see any kind of major uptick based on the film. This is a Jessica Drew who differs quite a bit from her appearance in the film. It wouldn’t shock me if there is no increase in pricing based on this.

Miguel O’Hara

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The Spider-Man from 2099, Miguel O’Hara, makes a major appearance in the trailer. His first comic book appearance was in Spider-Man 2099 #1. I know, I know – but what about Amazing Spider-Man #365? I’m of the opinion that a preview of a coming comic doesn’t really count as a first appearance. Feel free to argue otherwise, but that’s where I stand.

17 graded copies have sold since the release of the trailer, a slight uptick on the 13 that sold the three days prior. The high was a 9.8 selling for a slashed $188, down a ton from its all-time high of $450 set in August 2021. One note: two 9.8 graded newsstand copies have sold for prices in excess of $1,000. Either way, that’s down a lot.

I would expect prices to continue to drop for this book. It’s still north of the trend line, there are a ton of graded copies – 7,444, and there are plentiful raw copies floating around out there.

Spot

SpecSpider98-195x300 Market Reaction - Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Trailer

Let’s not forget about the villain of Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. Spot made his first appearance in Spectacular Spider-Man #98.

There are 565 graded copies in the CGC census, four of which have sold since December 13, three more than sold the three days prior. The high was a 9.8, which sold for $264. That’s down roughly two-thirds from the slashed $850 it sold for on June 14. The current price is right near the trend line we would expect for this book.

While it wouldn’t surprise me if it dropped below the trend line, I wouldn’t expect it to fall too far.

Bag Man?

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You knew something was going to pop, and based on his appearance in the trailer, the Bombastic Bag Man is it. For the uninitiated, Bag Man is Peter Parker in a Fantastic Four uniform with a paper bag over his head. In the trailer, we see a Spider-Man, sans FF outfit, with a bag on his head.

Four graded copies of the first appearance of Bag Man in Amazing Spider-Man #258 have sold since the release of the trailer, the same number as sold since the start of December. The high was a 9.8 going for $405, down two-thirds from a high of $1,200 set in August 2021, proof that there’s always someone out there willing to overpay for a common comic.

I think Bag Man has reached the peak of his fame. I would expect prices to decrease from here, and may God have mercy on your soul if you pay more than $1,200 for this comic.

Are you excited for Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse? Any guesses regarding the number of Spider-People (or Spider-Animals for that matter) who will appear? Let us know below.

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4 comments

Corbitt December 22, 2022 - 6:43 pm

Re: Amazing Spider-Man 365 – do you and Don have a blood feud going? https://blog.gocollect.com/my-top-two-spec-picks-for-2023/

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Douglas Ohlandt December 22, 2022 - 9:39 pm

Haha! No blood feud, Corbitt. Just a difference of opinion when it comes to Miguel’s first appearance. It’s not uncommon when it comes to comics. I think if you had 10 people in a room it would be pretty split even regarding certain characters’ first appearance, especially that guy with the claws.

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GQGuyforComics December 23, 2022 - 4:04 am

hey doug, can a modern book with 15k graded census and still going up not mentioning the raw books out there can really make an impact ? can you kindly tell me by your perspective how can you have so much faith in this book where its over printed , i saw auction going for 1700 for this book and i still feel it still too much for this book. with a trailer where you usually should see an uptick not just in sales but also value made the book never go beyond 1900 just tells you there is so much of this book going around. can miles really unseat peter parker , if i have 1900 why would i buy this book over other grail books that proven and even rare. im not insulting you i really want to understand and learn thanks

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Douglas Ohlandt December 24, 2022 - 2:11 pm

GQ,
Thanks for writing. I don’t think Miles will ever unseat Peter Parker, but he is – probably – the single most popular character created by Marvel in the past 20 years. I’m not telling anyone to spend $1,900 on a book. But I do think that, when prices rise again (and they will at some point), the price on this comic will undoubtedly rise, and potentially quite significantly. The census count on Incredible Hulk #181 is 16,360 and that hasn’t stopped that comic from rising in value, despite the fact that there are some raw copies out there. Best guess as to existing copies of Incredible Hulk #181 – raw and ungraded – is roughly 100K based on a print run of roughly 370K. Ultimate Fallout #4 only had a print run of 93K. I’m going to assume most of them still exist. So, existing copies – graded and raw – are roughly equal. I would even go so far as to argue that Miles is as popular 10 years after his creation as Wolverine was 10 year after his. Do I think Ultimate Fallout #4 will be a six-figure book in 40 years? No idea, but I would tend to doubt it. But I definitely think it COULD be a five-figure book. The popularity of the character is immense, much larger than even most collectors realize. And remember, so long as more people want it than there are existing copies, prices will continue to rise. Short term investment – will you quickly see your money back? Break even is probably the best possibility over the next year or so. But long term – say 10 years? I think Ultimate Fallout #4 is definitely a worthwhile investment. If I had $1,900 to burn right now I’d likely buy one – after I’d blown $5K on a low grade FF #5, of course. I really don’t see prices going a whole lot lower on Ultimate Fallout #4. Is there room for them to drop a little? Sure. But not to the point where you would be burned investing long term. If you want to flip a copy, wait and see what happens. It wouldn’t shock me if it dropped down into the $1,600 to $1,700 range. But it also wouldn’t surprise me if we’ve already hit bottom.

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