Is Ultimate Fallout #4 Ready for a Fall?

I agree with your analysis, especially on the supply side. However, since Sony owns the rights to Miles Morales, I wouldn't too quick to count out film adaptation. Sony's universe isn't as well run as the MCU.

• I agree that Sony is ruining a lot of the Marvel Properties they hold. I love any comic that is turned into a movie but my preference would be if they would strike a deal with the Disney, but again even if that goes off the supply side scares me still.

Ult Fallout is presently levelled off with still high demand. Buy it and hold and wait. It will pay off big time in the future 5 years. If you buy to dump nope it wont work. Hold, Hold, Hold .In 3 years time if a live action movie or tv series is produced Bingo. The game will begin again and starting at a much higher buy in price especially on the 1in25 variant, My spidersense is ringing!!!!

• Tevavi
  
  That though is my problem and the problem of a lot of people out here. The supply side of people holding and waiting for a movie to pay off. The question then I have for you is what if, big if here, but what if they do not produce a movie? Do you still believe in this book if no movie. Again see how speculation is a big part of this book. I would ask you what would be the price that you would say would be the cut off then to buy? Discussions like this help others out there and I would love to have the input of someone who believes in this book to help with the price that they would say nope, not even if I had to hold it for five years. There has to be that price that is just too large that it scares even you.

  • Joesph Overaitis and Tevavi
    I have a 1in25 ult fallout 4 nm+. To answer Jo. Are you a speculator or investor. Big difference.Specs buy as cheap as possible to get a profit as soon as possible. Investors generally belieive a comic will mature in time at good profit. I say simply this, this is the first appearance of a new SPIDERMAN. How can it not improve with age? It will take time not days, weeks probably years perhaps decades. Yes the comic has spiked due to outside influence and it does not matter people are holding onto it. No movies or any tv series are irrelevant really. This will mean the comic will ripen naturally over time and i will say it again this is SPIDERMAN. For Tevavi these are just general remarks all probably true. We are not able to see into the future but Miles is getting popular and Marvel will without question push the character going into the future which can only be good. Ult fallout 4 had a 70,000 print run, the 1in25 maybe 1000-1500. In 3-5 years time people will want it. Even the 1st print (in my view the most desirable) and a higher print will retain its price. Even if tons of speculators dump at the same time it does not matter, you set your fair market price and stick to it if you wish to dump.

  • Joesph Overaitis
    If i can answer Tevavis question, as a collector not on Ebay i always buy as cheap as possible. The Ult fallout 4 i have, i bought at cover price 2 years ago. I buy what i believe will be popular sometime and below the radar that noone is interested in presently. Swings and roundabouts. Purely because i love to visit comic shops, browse and buy cheaply for fun. I am not wealthy and really collect comics as a hobby only. To read carefully and hoard. The Ebay craze of buying and selling is obviously addictive to many people and they are setting prices through their own manipulation as a business pretending to be someone selling their personal collection. I would only buy Ult Fallout 4 nm 1st print for up to £75 raw and 1in25 raw nm for £200 because yes i am tight but i wouldnt sell probably for 10 years if at all. Most people perhaps do not think this way rightly or wrongly. I am solely addicted to the hunt and visiting comic shops. Anyway that is my perspective. Hope it helps.

    • Ara it does! thank you for the comment and a different perspective.

      • This question has got me thinking again with my previous statements. Would i presently buy a 9.8 cgc ult fallout 4 variant at top dollar? If i geuinely had the money which i do not, i think i would offer up to $3000 and keep long term. To now find in the raw is probably now not possible but if a raw nm could be found, $1000 would be my max. I suspect a graded $9000 copy may drop to $5000-$6000 but stay there and from there prices will go up again quickly and for substantially more. A 9.8 is not necessary for myself, only a graded nm would be ok. Marvel Disney has found the magic formula for Miles Morales........

hello,which comics re better choices for investing?

• Dimi
  
  You have to ask yourself a couple of questions. I have an article coming out where I discuss problems that almost everyone investing faces and how they ignore it, but it addresses the fundamentals of your question.
  
  The first question you should ask yourself is how do you view this investment. is it a speculative gamble for you that you can purchase this book and if it pays off large you are ok with that potential when it goes with that book plummeting in price and you lose your money. Is it a book that you want to buy and hold for long term growth or short term growth. Your age also plays a factor. If you are 20 you may be able to take a risk versus if you are 60 that risk may not be worth it.
  
  For the average 35 year old who has a few dollars to spend I would spread out the risk and purchase some very early spiderman books and maybe looking for some bronze age first appearances that have not been picked yet for the movies. Again it is all based upon your views of risk. Read these boards and blogs and there are several articles from myself and others that I really believe in for that average investor.

Boom! Reason 1, 2, 4. Head, here is nail. Hit for me will you? I hadn't even considered reasons 3 and 5...but I have now. One of the questions I ask myself (and use GoCollect FMV for) is to compare books of a comparable value...Would I trade my ASM 14 at a 3.5, GS X-men 1 at a 4.0 or an ASM 129 at a 7.0 for a UF 4 at a 9.8? No way. Would I trade the UF 4 for any of those books...in a heartbeat. Which one looks better on my wall? Do I truly believe that 10 years from now this book will be guaranteed to appreciate? Nope. 10 years from now do I think a "blue chip" book will appreciate. Yep. Blue chips are blue chips for a reason. Frenzies in feeding can lead to overeating and not feeling to good after...Another well-written article.

• Algonwolf
  
  I agree with you on those trades! LOL Every day and twice on Sunday!!!

If you like the character and the current comic run, who cares?

• Kwasi
  
  At the price for that book you must really like the character. The prices keep rising and people see that but rarely ask the question why. If people love the character than this price may be justified but if people are buying to make a profit might help to know that as well.

the 2nd print is the one people should be wanting (not the Pichelli). When collectors realize the 2nd print has half the print run as the 1st it will start making a big run up again

• Mr. Wick
  
  Big Fan LOL. See that is it. Our people buying for the character and ignoring print runs? And at what price would even the 2nd print make you a bit concerned to buy? This book is jumping and yet I keep trying to find out why. You have a brilliant point in that if the character is the reason then the 2nd print should be more valuable because of the low print run. Is there a price though that even that book would be overvalued.

  • I totally get it. The character is great in this day and age. I'm just saying besides popularity everyone knows scarcity plus demand is the most important thing. Look at art, cryptocurrency. Supply and demand. I wouldn't expect tjis to go to the moon, of couse not. I just don't think people understand that the 1st print like you said has a high supply which will lead to a downswing in price. If you're going to buy the miles 1st appearance obviously u can look at the 1:25 but that's out of price range and I personally would be looking to put my mpney behind that low print run 2nd printing for the future especially if u have noticed it has come down from its April, May , June highs by a decent amount.

There are far too many copies of UF4 in high grade to support its price at this point. I wouldn't be surprised if the CGC census more than doubles over the next 12 months, then as hype cools off the value of this book will be cut in half. It went up too far, too fast, and with 20+ copies being added to ebay every day, there's simply too much supply to justify the current asking prices.

• Jay
  
  That is what I am seeing so glad I am not alone. This book is in demand but people are acting like it is a limited quantity. I mentioned once to person at show I was looking for it and almost everyone said they had them!!! Do you feel the only hope then for the book to retain its value is a movie? I know we can say hold on for a long time but that was what was said about the 90s baseball cards and that never happened because of all the supply that flooded market.

I’m 54. I collect silver and early bronze and Spider-Man 1-200 and mcfarlaines. Didn’t own a modern book. I bought an ultimate fallout 4 9.8 and edge of spider verse 2 9.8. I’m going to add them to my pc. I started reading latest runs of both. Reading both takes me back to the purity of the early asm’s without one more day, Parker industries, a million clones etc etc. Bottom line they are good characters. I don’t think we have to choose peter vs miles. They can happily co-exist. Also it’s nice to have a beautiful 9.8 instead of my grungy silver ages! I feel like collecting some of the moderns is filling in a gap in my collection and has refreshed me. I’m excited anew. If you think the prices r high now wait until they announce a live action. If you could get in on the ground floor collecting ASM wouldn’t u do it? Well it’s 1963 all over again. Buying miles keys is not that expensive vs high grade silver. You can pick up fallout 4, ultimate 1, mm ultimate1 and mm 1 for less than 3 grand (non high priced variants) all at 9.8. To me it sounds like a bargain.

• Fred
  
  Fred may i ask then to you is a movie important to this book increasing in price? You know how hard it is to find good silver age ASM in great condition because there are very few books entering into the CGC census because most have already been graded. How many more Miles exist out there that are not graded.
  
  I ask my clients when they are planning their estates of age impacts their risk aversion. Do you feel safe with Miles more than taking that money and buying early Parkers? Both can exist in stories but where we put our money may be exclusive based upon variables.
  
  I want to say thank you for the comment because it is important to be exposed to different views to help us improve our knowledge.

  • Correct. The issue is scarcity, and high grade copies of UF4 aren't at all hard to find. We had >30 copies in NM grade, graded most of them, and still have nearly half, and now we haven't sold one in 2+ weeks.
    
    This isn't 1963 all over again, not even close, because back then NO ONE thought their comics would ever be valuable, so they treated them like junk (and they were already more fragile and likely to degrade). In contrast, we treat even minor keys like treasures, bagging and boarding them, even grading some, and keeping them safe. So the >100k copies of UF4 printed will never be scarce, they'll never have the same cachet, and they while they will recover in value (after the incoming crash that will likely erase half their current FMV), they certainly will not hold the prices they're being sold at right now.

Your reasons are sound; I’ve got another perspective. I think Miles will continue to gain popularity, and it will be spearheaded by Millennials and younger generations, not the traditional collectors who often lament how modern comics are inferior to their preferred age.
I’d be very surprised if a Spider-verse sequel didn’t happen. The “Into The Spider-verse” made Sony a fortune, with Miles as the Lead.
My 10 and 11yr old son and daughter loved that movie and now think of Miles as Spider-Man, as do their classmates. From the merchandise (including a new Miles-centered video game) I’ve seen, Marvel/Disney is pushing Miles hard (and Spider-Gwen.)

Now the initial price run-up for UF4 in Q1 2020 took me by surprise, and I suspect it was price manipulation that worked far too well. I expected a price jump but not that fast or soon; I was awaiting the trailer for Spider-verse 2 to drop for the uptick.

I don’t think the age or quantity of UF4 should be a concern; it’s still far less common than many other keys, (IH181, ASM300, ASM361) and Miles’ popularity is actually growing along with graded copies available. It’s an evolving market that I think will keep strengthening.

Full disclosure, I own 1 copy of 1st print, graded 9.8. I plan to hold until movie trailer bump, and sell. If i didn't want the money for an unrelated endeavor I’d hold it long term. My more speculative holds are for Spider-Man 2099, he’s my favorite :)

• Many valid points. Most who have commented here on these boards or in private emails who believe in Miles seem to share the same point that Miles is the Spiderman of the future. You were the first one though that was also shocked at the rapid price increase so glad I see something that you did while having a different perspective. IS a movie essential now for this book to grow. That seems to be the one common variable everyone seems to be agreeing upon. Those concerned say time and movie while supporters say time and movie until you can expect to see a profit. Thank you for also disclosing you have the book. I published a pick and said I believe in the book. Later I found out the person I was bidding against for the book also read it. LOL Auctioneer said you did put your money with your statement. I am glad that when people read your support of the book it came with a full disclosure. Look forward to more comments from you ...Great points!!!

Not sure I buy the whole scarcity supply argument. What about 181? Also r silver age really that rare when u can go on eBay almost any given night and find the exact grade you want for most keys. I love collecting but I think as collectors we r kidding ourselves if u call silver age rare. I have never had an issue buying a silver age key as long as u are willing to spend the money

Realized prices for UF4 during its climb are intimidating and, as you said, its hard to see them staying there with the tremendous supply that is out there. I only have one high grade copy that is still polybagged and I am not interested in increasing my stake, currently. Prices are too high and when there is no more to climb, those red hot books sizzle on down...

I think the drive for miles morales is more emotional than driven by stats. The into the spiderverse cartoon laid the foundation. Younger readers + black spiderman + the current climate in our country has made this character blow up. And I dont think its going away anytime soon. It will have fluctuations but its basically a modern day grail. This character will continue to be used in video games, cartoons, and eventually live action. And with each announcement the price will keep rising.

That being said, modern books today are going crazy in general. Wild spikes in book prices within days of being released. Alot of frenzy and fomo out there.

• Big Y
  
  Never thought of it as me seeing a symptom of something much greater. I saw it only the tree not the forest. Wow. You just blew my mind. Maybe I have to research the modern age books more and see if a greater pattern exists. Thank You BIG Y!!!!

Great post! I collect a lot fo moderns however, personally I've never been a fan of the cover art for UF4. When things started to heat up, I pulled the trigger on a 9,8 of MM Ultimate Spider-man 1 Staples variant (1:50) as I simple loved the cover art. It was always on my radar and I grabbed it before it would undoubtedly go beyond my reach. With only 100 odd so on the census, I feel much more confident in the long term strength of this book vs the UF4. - movie or not. Agree with others that the way to go would be 2nd print..plus I think it's a nicer cover compared to the reg. Both my kids are under 10 years old and they do see Miles as their spider-man, so it will be interesting to see in years to come how this all plays out. I do believe that there is a place for both Paker and Miles in the current market.

• Luke
  
  Great point of view. I am starting to see the view that there is room for both, but that you must be picky in the book you bet on! Maybe that is what I was missing. Your comment and some from others seems to stress a nuance that I may have not seen.

It's not solely about supply, but about demand. Witness the consistently high prices that ASM 300 continues to command. Spider-Man is the bluest of blue chips. And a new Spider-Man for a new generation will be the blue chip of modern books. Because of that, I'm bullish on UF 4 and other early appearances of Miles.

• Ed
  
  I always love comments because I want to learn and see things maybe that I am not seeing. At what point is this book too high though for you to consider buying it? For me I see others who are players in the high end collectibles selling and that scares me. You are bullish on it but at what point is it not a good deal right now. I ask because others were bullish years ago on Azrael. I listened. I bought because he was the new batman for the new era. Is there a price point where right now UF scares even you?

I have to disagree in your point 4. You are right that Peter Parker is the most recognizable Spider-man for many. But most of his fanbase is the older generation. People live and die. Ang guess what, if these old collectors pass away, Miles Morales will be the most recognized Spider-man. Peter Parker will just be a footnote in history. And as for your MJ reference, do you really think that MJ can hold the GOAT status forever? They already proclaimed Wilt, Kareem, Magic, etc as GOAT before. Bottomline is, nothing lasts forever. Records are made to be broken.

• Mark
  
  I agree with everything a lot of what you said. My issue is that Miles rose so fast because people might be looking for the next Spider-man. The problem is who is buying and who is selling. If the people buying are those that are older because of speculation eventually they will be selling those books. Can the Market keep up when those books are being sold. I remember when Azrael was the next batman for the next generation. People bought that book and it was hot. The problem was the buyers who raised the price quickly sold it too because they really did not believe in it. My fear is that the people paying the high prices for miles do not believe in him as well and only see him as a quick buck. I would love to hear from you on this because I always value hearing from people on these issues. It helps me grow and maybe evolve too.

  • Hi Joseph. Thank you for your response and I really appreciate and respect your opinion. Yes you have a valid point there that speculators are jumping on such a highly printed book and dumping it to earn a profit. As you pointed out, this happened many times already and it did not panned out longterm such as Azrael. But is Miles really the next Azrael? Or is he the next Wally West? Or is he going to be something else? We will never really know the future. But one thing that really appeals to me is he is a very likable hero of color and hopefully can stand the test of time. Marvel and Sony are really pushing him hard which means they believe in him and what he brings to the table. You maybe right that some people don't care about him now and care only about the profits. But there may come a time that people who really and truly care about him and will outnumber those speculators especially if the nostalgia factor kicks in.
    
    I know it is hard to go in and buy at these absurd prices. You just need to time it correctly where the price will slightly drop before it goes up again. If you are really concerned with that high print run then try to get the 1:25 and newsstand variant.

I think the 1:25 variant and newsstand will be ok. You’re right about the other covers tho...super high numbers and it just keeps moving up.

I think one item that is very important is the deal marvel has done with scholastic. These will be graphic novels featuring miles for young readers. Scholastic has huge pull with teachers, librarians, parents and schools. Check out the Forbes article on this new launch. This will be built in nostalgia for a generation. Couple this with video games, cartoons, spider verse and future live action plus trade and comics and I think miles is on solid footing. A lot of comic folks are not really aware of the huge xposure the scholastic deal brings marvel properties as we tend to focus on the Lcs channel and Mcu.

• Fred
  
  I was unaware of the scholastic deal. I wonder though do the people buying this book also know about it. You seem educated on the topic and character but are people following people like you or people following FOMO. If it were you I would believe more in the book but I wonder if it is fomo.

We generally forget that our little bubble of comic specs are based around USA, Canada and Europe. Asian countries are catching on to some of the new diverse and older characters of Marvel and DC and print runs of 100,000 plus will not matter when thousands of speculators, collectors, readers and investors start to flex their monetary muscles. The world does not just evolve around us. Asian money will bring a whole new meaning to comic book values old and new from all ages.They will want their piece of the pie.

• Sark
  
  Welcome to the boards. Great comment. I have said this before, but I want people to comment because it gives us a better total view of what is happening. Knowledge is powers. I want to ask you Sark are you expressing personal knowledge on the topic. I have had other people from different areas of the world talk about some of my posts. What amazed me was how each market is different. I am told in some countries comic keys sell for a lot less than FMV but finding them is very difficult. Do you have any personal insights on the foreign markets as it relates to comics. I would love to know more.
  
  I understand that we are in a global economy even in comics, but the question is just how big of an impact this will be in relation to the increase in prices we have seen. I had a client from China in my day job who I represented who was in real estate. He came in during the real estate boom. The market seen an increase in Asian investors in the real estate market years ago when prices were booming and then boom. Even the influx of Asian investors was not enough to prevent the bubble from bursting. Could that be the same with comics? Again please keep posting because your views are valued and appreciated

Ultimate fallout 4 1st print seems to be slowly still rising. The variant seems to be now more reclusive and people are holding onto it. It would be great to here wot people think will be the variant price in 3, 5, 10 and 20 years time. Will it soon surpass spidey 667 variant at $33,0000 ? What about other modern / copper desirable comics must buys and some under the radar and covers, probably another question but Sandman 8 berger, 75 2nd print, TMNT 1 5th print, Nyx 3, Superman Bradman nn, Batman 655 variant - Damian, Green Lantern 20- J Cruz, 25-Atrocitus, Sgirl 23 Hughes, Archie Veronica 202 1st / 2nd print - Kev Keller, X23 1 dell otto, Fan Four 20 -1st adult Valeria Richards, Batman 570- 2nd harley quinn, UK comics 2000ad 1 and UK Action 1, Vengeance 1 variant, Ms Marvel 1 7th print, Death Metal 7 -Yara Flores. Cap marvel 8 - Star, Batman 702 - Been told first time Darkseid appears in a Batman comic (No research to back it up). Hundreds more but these to start...