Is the movie/TV show to comic book trend finally slowing down? Several people have told me they think the link between movies, TV show announcements and sales of comics are slowing. For the last ten years, at least, there’s been quite a close relationship between the appearance of a new movie or television live action show and prices on related comic book properties.

Just like in the case of the symbiote Venom and his host, in the past, before a major motion picture dropped and before its trailer was released, the speculation market went crazy absorbing the news that another character or group would be given a pop culture platform beyond the page of the comic. The result, more often than not, was a measurable feast and a rise in prices for the comic. In short: a ‘bump’ effect in sales.

Since I mentioned Venom above, I want to use some recent Spider-man related properties to measure how the announcement/full trailer/movie/TV show news affects the sales activity of comic titles.

Amazing Spider-man #2 (May 1963) – First Appearance of the Vulture

We can start with looking at the sales of Spider-man #2 and the connected film, 'Spider-man: Homecoming'. There have been over 691 sales of this book over the last 15 years.

The highest number of recorded sales on this comic on GoCollect.com, over that period of time, was of 4.0 graded copies. This makes sense, it’s a Silver Age Marvel key and an early issue in the run of a highly sought after title. Examining the results of the sales patterns we see that the bump effect is noticeable. Before any word of the Homecoming movie with the Vulture, the comic was selling for:

July 19, 2003 = $805.00 (Heritage)
April 4, 2004 = $690.00 (Heritage)
Dec 13 2009 = $567.63 (Heritage)
Feb 21, 2010 = $448.13 (Heritage)
Feb 28, 2010 = $657.25 (Heritage)

An average price of $633.60 from 2003-2010, with a trend of prices slipping downwards. By April of 2016, news was out that the Vulture would face Spidey in Homecoming and we see prices around this time start to jump:

April 26 2016 = $925.00 (Ebay)
May 2, 2016 = $895.01 (Ebay)
May 20, 2016 = $795.20 (Ebay)
June 12, 2016 = $776.75 (Heritage)
June 19, 2016 = $836.50 (Heritage)

With an average price of $845.69 from April to June of 2016, with a trend of prices moving upwards. This is sustained around the time the first ‘Spider-man Homecoming’ full trailer was released on December 9, 2016. At that time we find the following sales activity:

Dec 27, 2016 = $1,175.00 (Ebay)
Jan 15, 2017 – $1, 100.00 (Ebay)
June 7, 2017 = $1,100.00 (Ebay)

Clearly the bump is present. A $1, 125.00 average is what the book now goes for.

Finally, the movie premiered: July 7, 2017, the next sale for this grade is in Sept. 10, 2017 = $1,100.52 (Ebay), then in November 11, 2017 = $1, 395.00, and by December prices are down to levels below what sales fetched after the first trailer dropped with a December 3, 2017 sale of = $1,015.75.

Today, in 4.0, the average fair market price is around $1,200.00 and the last Ebay sale on July 1, 2018 was for exactly $1000.00. So taking into account the data from 2003 to today, this comic has a positive +42.8% return on investment. But in the last few years Silver Age keys have been going crazy regards increase in value, will this trend between film and book also play out for a Bronze Age key?

Spectacular Spider-man #64 (March 1982) – First Appearance of Cloak and Dagger

This comic has a total of 713 sales over the last 13 years recorded on GoCollect.com. There were also a high number of sales on 9.4 grades. Before any word of the 'Cloak and Dagger' TV show, the average sale of this grade was as follows:

April 13, 2011 = $49.99 (Ebay)
March, 11, 2013 = $75.00 (Ebay)
April 03, 2013 = $90.00 (Ebay)
June 30, 2013 = $49.99 (Ebay)
July 1, 2013 = $50.00 (Ebay)

For an average sale price of $62.99. There was talk of developing this series since 2011, but by early 2017, word was out that the Cloak and Dagger TV series would really happen. Let’s look at sales from the time. Staying with 9.4 grades:

Jan 23, 2017 = $119.00 (Ebay)
Jan, 26 2017 = $149.99 (Ebay)
Feb 07, 2017 = 115.20 (Ebay)
Feb 13, 2017 = $120.00 (Ebay)
Feb 20, 2017 = $121.79 (Ebay)

Prices are trending upwards and the average sale price is now: $125.19. Then, when the first full ‘Cloak and Dagger’ trailer is released March 20 2018, we see the following:

March 25, 2018 = $139.00 (Ebay)
March 25, 2018 = $100.00 (Ebay)
April 1, 2018 = $146.99 (Ebay)
April 4, 2018 = $138.00 (Ebay)
April 5, 2018 = $180.00 (Ebay)

Again, the 'bump' happens with the release of the full trailer. The average price has gone up to $140.79. Finally, when the show premiered on June 7, 2018, (final episode aired August 2, 2018), the sales numbers are as follows:

June 8, 2018 = $189.99 (Ebay)
June 9, 2018 = $175.00 (Ebay)
June 11, 2018 = $140.00 (Ebay)
July 9, 2018 = $152.00 (Ebay)
July 22, 2018 = $175.00 (Ebay)

Giving average prices on a 9.4 grade of this comic a $166.39 price perfectly reflecting what they stand at today according to GoCollect.com ($160.00), and having a return on investment of + 22.6% since 2011.

Venom: Lethal Protector #1 (1992) – First Venom Solo Series

July 2007 is when the world learned that there were plans to have a spin off Venom movie. At that time the Venom: Lethal Protector comic was selling, in 9.8 grades, for around $39.99 on Ebay. This was, in effect, still a dollar bin book. Venom’s appearance in Sam Raimi’s 'Spider-man 3' was underwhelming to say the least, so this comic didn’t really move at the time.
Definitive news that the ‘Lethal Protector’ comic would inspire the plot of a stand-alone spin-off film was leaked around December of 2017. Following up this news and looking at sales data, we find:

Dec 03, 2017 = $78.69 (Ebay)
Dec 04, 2017 = $117.50 (Ebay)
Dec 04, 2017 = $89.99 (Ebay)
Dec 06, 2017 = $39.96 (Ebay)
Dec 07, 2017 = $49.99 (Ebay)

An average sales price of: $75.22, now crunch time, the first trailer for Venom was released April 23, 2018, and right after that:

April 23, 2018 = $62.00
April 23, 2018 = $179.99
April 23, 2018 = $93.90
April 24, 2018 = $110.00
April 24, 2018 = $80.00

Where have we seen this pattern before? After the trailer there was a 'bump,' with average sale prices jumping from $75.00 to $105.17 on copies of the same grade. If the above trend holds, and currently the comic in 9.8 grade is hovering at the $110.00 range, there will be another bump with the October 5, 2018 release of the movie and then a tapering off and a steady price of around what it hit when the trailer was released.

The above was a very preliminary look at three select cases. Of course, there are far too many variables and no control case possible, so the best way to interpret the above analysis is to consider it as necessarily very informal and loose. But, from what I can tell, the connection is still there. The movie and TV show news does cause a noticeable bump in the sales of the related comic- at least for all things Spider-man, and I’m willing to bet it extends beyond just the web-head franchise.

What’s the general opinion on this matter among you and your friends? Has anyone actually noticed a slowdown in comic sales or prices in relation to movie/TV show announcements?