Captain Marvel was a great movie. Full of fun, action, and most of all, it was a great character introduction movie. I would venture to guess that we have not learned all the secrets of Carol Danvers and her journey to become Captain Marvel. Much like the Venom movie showed us last fall, a successful movie does not always translate into comic speculation success. At the end of the day, you wonder if the comic value moved at all or if we just saw a swell due to speculation and excess market demand due to exposure. Either way we really have to examine the movie and the comic market, in tandem, to see the full effect of the character market impact and overall popularity for future gains.
Lets compare Captain Marvel to another character…Killmonger. Killmonger is going to continue to become more popular over time. Although his first appearance book is at a market peak after tripling in value following the release of Black Panther, there is still room for future value growth in the book. Here is why… 1. The market supply is low, and 2. Killmonger is a character that will resonate through generations. So what that he may not appear ever again? He made his mark.
Now lets look at Captain Marvel. She made a splash on the market and saw comics that featured her key moments make some strides along with some losses. Ms. Marvel #1 saw it’s value double over the past year and a half to a Fair Market Value (FMV) of $2000. On the contrary, Avenging Spider-Man #9 which is the first comic to feature Carol Danvers as Captain Marvel peaked around FMV of $700 and then settled around the $500 range. I do still see some value in both of these books as we continue to explore the Captain Marvel character and her impact in the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU). What are Captain Marvel offerings missing that the Killmonger first appearance has? Anyone…Anyone? That’s right, say it with me…rarity!. If you collect 9.8 grades, you have just 8 chances to own a Jungle Action #6 whereas you have 250 chances to own a Ms. Marvel #1. That is over 30 times more common than Jungle Action #6.
The question with any comic becomes…where is the ceiling of value? If we play “lets imagine” about the future of comic prices, what scenarios do you see coming to fruition? Personally, I can’t imagine a 9.8 graded Ms. Marvel #1 taking another value jump and doubling into the $4000 range short-term. It seems like too much of a stretch after the current market inflation. Can I see the market for one of the eight 9.8 graded copies of Jungle Action #6 taking another value jump from its current high? I can, and I see that happening more easily than the other scenario. Rarity is the main factor that helps avoid big market swings because it helps to maintain and increase market value over time. Captain Marvel is popular and Ms. Marvel #1 is hot on the market, but the fact remains the market supply should help prices settle as sellers try to ride the wave and cash in where they can. If you tracked the Spider-Ham market over the past year, you would have seen the full cycle of this phenomenon.
Do you expect more long-term MCU involvement for Captain Marvel? What characters do you feel have the highest ceiling for value? Drop your comments and join in the speculation!