The “Merc with a Mouth.” In the last few years, Deadpool has gained worldwide popularity with box office success and comic book sales. In light of this all-time high of exposure to Deadpool, how has this translated to his original first appearance comic book?
Here we examine the market outlook for Deadpool’s biggest key, New Mutants #98.
NEW MUTANTS #98 (1991)
Before we examine the current market behavior for New Mutants #98, let’s look back at its history since the beginning of the decade (for the book graded in CGC 9.8).
- 2012 – The volume of sales were low and the range of sales prices was in the $300s.
- 2013 – Sales prices rose steadily and finally broke the $400 level
- 2014 – In July, test footage for a live action Deadpool movie were “leaked” on the internet and met with great enthusiasm from fans. In September an official Deadpool movie was greenlit at Fox Studios. With these sequence of events, sales prices for New Mutants #98 skyrocketed to around $800.
- 2015 – Prices were able to hold steady above $800.
- 2016 – In February, the Deadpool movie was released worldwide. This was a great turning point for book prices; prices fell rapidly to the $600 level by the end of the year.
- 2017 – With the lead up into the sequel Deadpool 2, prices turned around and rose to the $700s.
- 2018 – In May, Deadpool 2 released…
Which finally brings us to the sales data for New Mutants #98 since 2018. We will look at this in greater detail in the chart below, which shows sales for CGC 9.8 (the top 20.5% of census).
In the two years since Deadpool 2’s release, sales prices for New Mutants #98 have been dropping steadily. Lower lows and lower highs. As with the other time periods when prices for New Mutants #98 trended negatively, the only catalyst for reversal is another sequel. This poses two problems: Will Deadpool 3 happen? And if so, when? These two problems are very distinct.
Why would Disney choose not to continue a successful franchise? If they choose not to, then the conversation is over and New Mutants #98 will continue its fall. So let’s go with the assumption that Deadpool 3 will indeed occur, so we can continue the conversation and move to the next problem of timing.
How much longer is the wait until official Deadpool 3 news comes out? Nobody knows. Until then, the prices will continue to fall. With this, the effects of waiting is not much better than no sequel. The downside is unknown as the market for New Mutants #98 has not seemed to have found a bottom yet. Meanwhile, the reference points for the book’s upside exists in the form of the two price peaks around the releases of Deadpool 1 and Deadpool 2. Furthermore, the peak price levels were very similar. The ranges were slightly volatile, but the averages were low-$800s for Deadpool 1 and middling-$850s for Deadpool 2. Two years of price fluctuations only yielded less than 10%. Again, this is at its peaks. And bear in mind, in the time in-between the book fell as much as -25%. And this was with more concrete Deadpool 2 sequel news than what currently exists for a third Deadpool movie.
THE BOTTOM LINE
From here, 3 outcomes are possible:
- No sequel – Prices continue its fall.
- Yes sequel, timing of news is very late – Prices have a long time to fall before they are reversed. The damage is done and the third price peak has a lowered potential.
- Yes sequel, timing of news is very soon – Prices reverse immediately. The third price peak tops the Deadpool 2 peak.
New Mutants #98 – From a financial investment perspective, this book unfortunately is a difficult one to weigh. The bottom is unknown, while the top is very limited. The continued negative trend will surely dismay anyone currently holding the book. If looking to acquire this book at a cheaper price, time is on your side. Just be weary of any official Deadpool 3 news, as that could signal a reversal of price trends.
“I love the smell of 372, 844 pancakes in the morning. Smells like victory.” – Deadpool