“It’s true. All of it.” What you may have heard or seen in recent weeks is actually, in fact, happening. There is a modern comic out there from about nine years ago that is approaching a fair market value of $1,000 at a CGC 9.8 grade. GoCollect currently lists Ultimate Fallout #4 with an FMV of only $450, but once that number catches up with recent sales data, it is sure to skyrocket.
Recent Ultimate Fallout Data
Just browsing the most recently sold copies on eBay, the last 10 copies of UF #4 first print in a CGC 9.8 sold for an average of $822 (as of the afternoon of June 10th). That number reflects prices back to May 25th, when a copy sold for $725 all the way to June 9th when a copy sold for an unbelievable $980. That is a 35% price increase in just two weeks. If I scroll back just to the end of March, the same book was selling for around $400-$425.
Keep in mind, this is a modern book with plenty of supply. There are almost 5,800 copies on just the CGC census, with almost 1,900 of those registered as 9.8 blue or yellow labels. In addition, the print run on the first edition was about 74,000 initially, according to Comichron.com. It was the second most copies of any Marvel book published that month, more than both copies of Amazing Spider-Man, Uncanny X-Men, Avengers, and Captain America. Marvel knew it would be a hot item, so it produced accordingly. Supply is not an issue.
But I’m sure never in their wildest dreams did Marvel imagine that based on the popularity of Sony’s Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse it would become a book that carries this much heat.
So here’s my dilemma. I can see no rational reason to buy this book at this grade at this moment in time. For those of you who feel differently, please change my mind.
I’m going to pretend for a few moments that I have a PayPal account loaded with about $800-$1,000 ready to spend. Let’s also pretend that I am interested in buying a Spider-man comic book for speculative purposes (If you’re buying a UF #4 to own and read, you aren’t buying a slabbed 9.8). What would be the reason I would buy UF #4 in a 9.8 grade instead of the following:
ASM #2 – First appearance of Vulture. FMV of CGC 2.5 is $900
ASM #3 – First appearance of Dr. Octopus. FMV of CGC 2.0 is $1,000
ASM #9 – First appearance of Electro. FMV of CGC 6.0 is $1,000
ASM #14 – First appearance of Green Goblin. FMV of CGC 3.5 is $1,000
ASM #20 – First appearance of Scorpion. FMV of CGC 7.0 is $900
ASM #31 – First appearance of Gwen Stacy and Harry Osbourne. FMV of CGC 8.5 is $800
ASM #50 – First appearance of Kingpin. FMV of CGC 7.5 is $975
ASM #129 – First appearance of Punisher. FMV of CGC 7.0 is $925
Spider-Man, and especially Silver Age Spider-Man, is the ultimate blue-chip stock. ASM #3, for example, has risen in market value by 57% in the past 10 years and 39% in just the past five years. ASM #50 is an example on the low end as it has only grown by 17% in the past 10 years.
“But,” you might say, “I bought UF #4 for four bucks and now I can sell it for hundreds!” And you would be correct. Today. Can you be assured UF #4 will be able to sell for that amount five years from now? Ten? There are decades of data on these early Spider-Man issues.
Increased Demand for Ultimate Fallout is Just a Bubble
According to investopedia.com, a stock market bubble is a rapid escalation of asset prices followed by a contraction, often created by a surge in asset prices that is fundamentally unwarranted. What generally follows these bubbles? A market correction which leads to a massive sell-off of assets
In my opinion, this issue is the very definition of an inflated stock bubble. There are unsustainable drivers pushing the price up such as the recent Sony movie, it was CGC’s featured comic of the month in January 2019, and was featured on Key Collector Comics‘ Hot Keys list. These are snapshots in time; far from assurances of long-term interest.
But even more than this, we must differentiate the fact that this is only the first appearance of Miles Morales, not the first appearance of Spider-Man or some new and interesting hero. For comparison, last year’s Spider-Man #1 introduced Peter Parker’s son as the new Spider-Man as well as a new villain. Do we expect the same demand in a few years for the issue? What if there’s a movie?
Invest in a Sure Thing
Go ahead, call me a modern hater, call me a snob, a traditionalist, or whatever name comes to mind. Personally, if I’ve got a grand sitting around waiting to be used on the web-slinger, give me the Silver Age classics all day, every day.
To be clear, I have no issue with people buying this book or being fans of this book. The character and upgrades it brings are interesting, the movie was a cinematic success, and it is a new and diverse take on an old school character. My issue is given the history we have seen with spiking modern books, and the fact that people keep buying this book at higher and higher prices, this is the absolute wrong time to buy Ultimate Fallout #4. Wait for the bubble to deflate.
Give me your best shot. Why should I by buying this book right now at this price? Let me know in the comments.
GoCollect is the #1 comic book price guide for tracking sales data of all graded comic books in real-time. Fair market values are now at your fingertips. Check out all the features at www.gocollect.com.