The trailer for ‘Star Wars: Episode IX’ dropped the other day. We now have a glimpse into the final film of the current trilogy, and what’s more we now know its name: ‘The Rise of Skywalker’. But will this latest entry into the beleaguered Abrams’ Disney produced ‘Star Wars’ trilogy do anything for the price of poor Star Wars #1? This comic has been dropping since 2018 like an asteroid caught in the gravitational pull of the planet Hoth.
In what seems like an eternity ago, but was really only back in 2015, ‘Star Wars Episode VII: The Force Awakens’ took the box office by storm.
The consequence of Disney’s continuation of the classic Star Wars franchise was that everything ‘Star Wars’ was hip and cool again. This held true not only for the films and products connected to the original trilogy (which Episode VII did its best to evoke, even going so far as to re-cast Carrie Fischer and Harrison Ford in their old roles as Leia and Han), but also for the Marvel Comic published before the release of the original film (later renamed ‘A New Hope’) and that retells the original beginning of the Star Wars story.
Before news that a relaunch of Star Wars was imminent, circa 2011, Star Wars #1 was selling in CGC certified 9.8 grade for under $500.00. Then between the news of the new movie and the release of the first teaser trailer for ‘The Force Awakens’ (on November 28, 2014), prices began to spike.
09/24/2012 = $400.00 (eBay)
01/07/2013 = $395.00 (eBay)
02/10/2013 = $454.10 (Heritage Auctions)
03/29/2013 = $575.00 (eBay)
05/29/2013 = $550.00 (eBay)
07/09/2013 = $649.00 (eBay)
11/23/2013 = $537.00 (Heritage Auction)
This was just the beginning. After the first full trailer dropped and Star Wars fever began to really set in, prices began to positively explode for Star Wars #1.
On 03/12/2015 a 9.8 copy sold for $1, 799.00 (eBay auction), on 04/15/2015, we see the same book sell for $1, 900.00 (eBay auction) and on 07/13/2015 a copy of Star Wars #1 sold for $3, 165.00 (eBay fixed price).
Was it a Jedi mind trick that led to that last sale? Possibly, since prices cooled down after that but with sales regularly breaking the $2000.00 mark and average sales of well over $1, 400.00 still going on and for much of 2015.
It was a seller’s market.
Fast forward to the premiere of ‘Episode VIII: ‘The Last Jedi’, which was released December 15, 2017, and things were not so rosy.
This chapter of the Saga was not as well received by fans and we saw a dip in prices on the comic as a result. In fact numbers had declined and softened by 2018. Now the average sale on a certified 9.8 copy of SW #1 was just over $1000.00.
Unfortunately, it’s been downhill since then. Returns on Star Wars #1 since April 2018 have looked overwhelmingly negative:
9.8 = negative -1.2%
9.6 = negative -5.6%
9.4 = negative -8.7%
9.2 = Positive +8.1%
9.0 = negative -8.1
It looks like numbers have been down for Luke and his friends ever since the mixed reception of the Last Jedi. Can they pick up if Episode IX is a hit?
That’s a big ‘if’. Even Mark Hamill (set to reprise his role as…a ghost?) has gone on record as saying there’s something like a ‘Star Wars fatigue’ setting in. The damage done by ‘the Last Jedi’ will be hard to fix. Currently, returns over the last 3 weeks look as follows:
9.8 = negative -2.9% after 12 sales [low sale= $818.00 & high sale = $1, 310.00 ]
9.6 = positive +2.6% after 24 sales [low =$213.50 & high = $360.00]
9.4 = negative -4.7% after 27 sales [low = $170.00 & high = $265.00]
9.2 = Positive +5.9% after 25 sales [low = $103.00 & high = $275.00]
9.0 = negative -3.7% after 16 sales [low= $99.99 & high = $159.94]
What’s the take away here: the days of $3000.00 plus 9.8 copies are probably not going to come back. If you get lucky, you can sell a 9.8 for over $1000.00, but more likely you will get something like current FMV of around $950.00. Of course, if you’ve always wanted a copy of Star Wars #1 in 9.8 now is not exactly the worst time to buy, but I would wait to see what happens to prices after ‘the Rise of Skywalker’.