When one tees off in golf, proper etiquette requires yelling 'fore' to alert other golfers that something is coming. Here you are, puttering along on the course, oblivious to the imminent danger of flying objects. Unless, of course, someone sounds the alarm: FORE! Today I am sounding the alarm. A metaphorical Top Flight ball is headed your way. I am warning you, if you Buy Wrong, you will Lose Big! Today's discussion focuses on a single sale of Fantastic Four 94 and original art from that same issue. As a narrow example from a broad market, I'm not imploring you to duck-and-run from the fairway. I'm only suggesting the prudent thing to do is look up and test the wind.
Fantastic Four #94 Case Study
First, am I overstating when I say Buy Wrong, Lose Big? I want to look at a single example. ONE does not make a trend, but it's prudent to learn from the past. This Fantastic Four #94 sale completed a long time ago, ages ago, back in 2011. Hopefully, the person who made this purchase is not cursing me right now. I suppose the seller could be reading this, chest puffed out, hands in pocket in mock humility, and grinning from ear to ear.
The year was 2011, the month was February, the day was the 25th. Someone committed a crime that day. At least it feels that way nine years later. Through Heritage Auctions, a graded 9.8 copy of Fantastic Four #94 sold for $4,481.25. The issue featured a slugfest between the Fantastic Four and longtime antagonists the Frightful Four. Besides the return of hair model and Inhuman Medusa, the issue boasts the first appearance of Agatha Harkness.
Fantastic Four 94Lose Big? I Need Some Context
With all the huge sales of graded comics these days, sometimes it's hard to know if a price is high or low. For context, two sales of FF #94 in 9.8 averaged $1,100 in 2020. Ouch! If you paid $4,400 for that comic in 2011, you probably feel like a golf ball just ricocheted off your head. By fun coincidence, that's fore (I mean four) times higher than what people paid this year. Perhaps more alarming, when I started writing this article, the GoCollect FMV value was $1,100--now it's only $1,000! And sure it's a drop in grade, but eBay lists a signature series Stan Lee signed copy in graded 9.6 for $1,900.
If You Buy Wrong, the Trend is not Your Friend
In the stock market, great stocks sell high. Then, they go higher! Sale prices for Fantastic Four #94 are all over the place. In 2017, a 9.8 sold for $2,000. That sale fetched much more than other sales post-2011. Then, the price dropped again to the current levels. It's normal to see volatility in markets, but these sales are about as consistent as my golf game!
A few sales of one comic don't make a trend. So, do not overreact. But I do believe the astronomical inflation of comic book prices can't be maintained. Likewise, in my primary area of interest, original comic book art, prices continue to explode. I wonder if the end is near? FORE!!!
Original Art from Fantastic Four #94
Fantastic Four 94 Page 7 by Jack Kirby and Joe Sinnott
I like the resistance original art has to market forces due to its nature as one-of-a-kind. However, art fluctuates in price, too. Page 7 from FF #94 sold in 2019 for the nice price of $9,900. I graded that art as CAT R6 since it is an interior page featuring the Thing in every panel. It is also by legendary artist Jack Kirby. Back in 2008, page 18 from the same issue sold for $4,481.25. Though different pages, I assigned the same CAT score of R6. Coincidentally, it sold for the same price as someone overpaid in 2011 for the 9.8 comic book.
Those prices seem reasonable: nearly $4,500 in 2008, escalating to nearly $10,000 eleven years later. However, page 2 from the same comic, this one graded CAT R4, sold in 2008 for $7,768. Four years later, it dropped in sales price all the way down to $5,328. That represents a compounded annual loss of -10.2%! OUCH again.
Buy Right Win Big - Page 18 from FF 94 is Up for Auction
Fantastic Four 94 Page 18 CAT R6 by Jack Kirby and Joe Sinnott
What will Page 18 of this Jack Kirby classic sell for? I grade Page 18 as CAT R6 also. I actually think it is better than the other pages that have sold because there are more FF team members plus some Frightful Four villains as well. As of September 21st, the current bid was $4,700 on this page due to auction in early October. By the time this blog prints, the sale may be complete. Though still a couple weeks out, I'll go out on a fairly sure limb and guess this art will substantially exceed the $9,900 sales price from 2019. If someone can get it closer to $9,900, then forget Buy Wrong Lose Big, they nailed it.
FORE!
So, that's my forecast. Remember, I have no foreknowledge and little foresight. Though my message in this blog has foreshadowed potential losses and may fill you with foreboding, you can take my for(e)tune telling for what it's worth. Meanwhile, I'll rub my forehead where a dull pain is forming.
