The comic market can be exciting and confusing all at once. As in any market, there is bound to be forces like supply and demand. If you understand these forces, you may be able to get a competitive edge on the market. Thankfully for speculators, the comic market can be as wild as the stories within the books we collect. Just like a company that has a bunch of hype and sees a rise in value, comics are being highly influenced by potential character appearances in the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU). But should all MCU appearances be treated equal? Not when it comes to speculating values.
I have written a few articles that have mentioned Thor #337 and its potential on the market. However, even I was taken aback by the recent momentum this book has seen. A year ago a 9.8 copy of Thor #337 could be picked up on the market for around $300. With a rumor that Beta Ray Bill may be in the upcoming Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, prices made an immediate trek upwards and the momentum has not stopped in the past few months. I watched as prices went into the $400 range, which to me was not a stretch as I had blogged about here. Then copies started pushing into the $500 range, I was intrigued. At $600, I was shocked. It is not that this book does not have value or deserve the value, but to me it was more about statistics and market variables...and the fact that we have not even had the character appear in live action.
First off, you can find a 9.8 graded copy of Thor #337 available on the market at almost any time and for a fair market value (FMV)...if not below fair market. A white cover is typically hard to get in 9.8, but for Thor #337 there are 669 blue label 9.8's. That is a high census number for any book. If they are so prevalent on the market, why would the demand suddenly cause the prices to skyrocket? A book that is similar in most regards, Incredible Hulk #271 has not seen a rise akin to that of Thor #337. In theory, Incredible Hulk #271 should have everything going for its benefit: it's a better and more prominent character's first appearance (Rocket Racoon), half the number of 9.8's exists on the census, it's a similar year and cover type, and it also has a newsstand variant. Why is the MCU hype pushing Beta Ray Bill to be of near equal value to Rocket Racoon? Especially when the data is screaming that this should not be the case? Welcome to comic investing!
In the short term, I expect prices of of Thor #337 to stagnate and begin to decline as speculators grab a copy prior to the expected pop on this book and copies saturate the market to cash in on the pop. I do believe the hype is waning and although an MCU appearance pop in value may occur, it is still pure speculation. If you are keen on buying Thor #337, wait for a bit as the storm will settle in your favor, and I definitely see long term success in this book.
Do you feel that Beta Ray Bill is worth of his $625 FMV? Are there other characters you are banking on to make MCU appearances? Drop your comments and join the speculation!
