We have now seen 12 months pass since Marvel officially announced their Phase Four plans at 2019's San Diego Comic-Con, and boy what a 12 months it has been. Primarily due to COVID-19 and its effects on the economy and our general way of life, just about all of Phase Four has been delayed.
Marvel's Phase Four Review
It's crazy to think that we are already two months past the date we were supposed to have Black Widow. And now we have to wait until (hopefully) November to enter into the new phase.
But, these delays have caused an expected cooling-off period of many of the comic books that shot to the moon after the various announcements last July. What it has done for comic investors and speculators is open up another small window of opportunity to jump on some of the major keys that represent what Phase Four will be about.
To determine what books would be the best buy right now, I looked at the announcements made in San Diego and then analyzed the last twelve months of data according to GoCollect's sales tracker. For each first appearance book below, I took the total number of CGC grades that have had at least three sales in the last 12 months and determined what percentage of those grades have seen declines in market value.
For the technical details of the sales analyzer, I set my parameters as beginning July 1, 2019, and ending July 14th, 2020. I set the total sales at 10,000 units so to make sure I included all tracked sales in that time period. The sales tracker is a great tool -- use it!!
After slicing off some movies and shows of characters that have already been introduced, I analyzed the following list:
Black Widow - Tales of Suspense #52
The Eternals - Eternals #1
Shang Chi - Marvel Special Edition #15
Jane Foster as Thor - What If #10
Dr. Strange - Strange Tales #110 and Doctor Strange #169
Moon Knight - Werewolf by Night #32
She-Hulk - She-Hulk #1
Which book is the best buy one year later? Let's find out.
Phase Four Key Issues
Tales of Suspense #52
We've already seen trailers, clips, plot points, and supporting characters for Black Widow, so this was perhaps the hottest book when the shutdown hit in March. It fairly quickly got the release pushed back to November in The Eternals' spot, and the book began to quickly cool down.
Of the 16 grades that have seen multiple sales in the last year, 12 of them have seen declines. A full 75% have depreciated in that time, but that's a door likely to shut soon. When movie theaters start opening again and Black Widow gets another round of marketing push, it is likely to spike again.
Eternals #1
In normal circumstances, we should be four short months away from Eternals and would likely have had a trailer by now. Now the movie will come out in January and we will likely see one of those Disney-ESPN Monday Night Football hyped trailer reveals for Ikaris and the gang sometime this fall.
Of the 15 grades of sales, nine have decreased, or only a decrease of 60% within those grades. This has remained a popular book due to the expected grandiose nature of the movie and the fact that a CGC 9.8 will likely cost less than $1,000.
Marvel Special Edition #15
The first appearance of Shang Chi has retained a lot of its value in the past 12 months likely due to the fact that it was a comparatively inexpensive key compared to some of the others on this list.
That being known, eight of 16 grades have decreased since last July, meaning only 50% of the copies of this book have lost value, while the rest are holding steady or improving with time. There is also a lot of anticipation for what Marvel might do with a Kung Fu-style movie, so Shang Chi continues to moderately appreciate.
What If #10
As you probably know, the first appearance of Jane Foster comes in Journey Into Mystery #84, also the second appearance of Thor. This book is out of range for most of us, so I focused on the first time Foster takes the Hammer in What If.
For a relatively cheap book, it is interesting that 10 of 13 grades (mostly high grades) have all declined in price over the past 12 months - good for 77%. This is likely due to the "What If" factor and that it's not part of a sustained character transition or Marvel canon. Regardless, this has become a very attainable book.
Strange Tales #110 and Doctor Strange #169
The famous first appearance of Dr. Strange and one of the most desired comic books of the Silver Age is Strange Tales #110. As you can imagine, it is also one of the most expensive. With the precious few copies that exist over grade 9.0 selling for well over $10,000. This book is one of our strongest price sustainers on the list. Only five of 16 grades have decreased in market value over the last year.
Dr. Strange #169 is far from his first appearance. Still, the Silver Age established the character as a mainstay in the Marvel portfolio. The Strange Tales series changes its name in issue 169 to this solo series. While its prices are way below what we find in ST #110, this book also has seen only three of 14 grades decline in price; a mere 21%. Clearly, there are plenty of Dr. Strange fans out there hunting for these books.
Werewolf By Night #32
The introduction of Moon Knight was met with overwhelming praise. However, fans of the hero will have to settle for him on Disney+. At least until he makes his appearance on the big screen. This book has a fascinating trajectory if you analyze its performance just from July 2019 to September 2019. You would see many grades increase between 25% and 50% just in a two-month span.
Since July, however, eight of 19 grades have decreased, totaling 42%. The issue still remains pricey. A CGC 6.5 is probably the best grade you can get for under $1,000. Though, it has cooled in many places and provides an opportunity to jump on it before the show premieres.
She-Hulk #1
Considering the popularity of the MCU's Hulk character, it was only a matter of time until She-Hulk made her debut. This book has been extremely popular over the past year. There have been well over 1,000 recorded sales in the past 12 months. A number not so surprising when you consider there are over 7,000 copies of CGC blue and yellow labels on the census.
All sales of this book have taken place in grade 5.0 and above. Only five of 13 grades have seen a decrease or just 38%. The most recent 9.8 copy sold for under $500. So, it is much more accessible than other books here. That is likely driving the sustained market value.
Which One is Worth Buying?
Looking at the data above, there are two clear standouts in terms of books that have lost significant market value over the last year. It just comes down to how much cash do you want to drop on a book.
If you're looking to invest in a big book, Tales of Suspense #52 is the way to go. Not only has it seen the widest decrease in the market value of these books, but the Black Widow movie is coming in mere months. Time is running short to purchase and then maximize a return on investment.
If you are looking for a cheaper investment, What If #10 is your best bet. Your return won't be as large when Thor: Love and Thunder crosses the movie screens. Still, a 9.8 copy of this book was selling for $1,100 in October. Now it has multiple sales under $700 this summer.
Which book are you purchasing in advance of Phase Four? Let me know in the comments!
GoCollect is the #1 comic book price guide for tracking sales data of all graded comic books in real-time. Fair market values are now at your fingertips. Check out all the features at www.gocollect.com
