Venom has met his greatest foe: a bad movie. No grade of Amazing Spider-Man #300 is safe from its wrath, and some have recently sold at two-year lows.
I tried to warn you. Twice, actually.
Back in September – just days before the release of the Venom movie – I advised that ASM 300 values had peaked in “Sell Your ASM 300? Gasp!” Most collectors scoffed at the idea. Three months later, the data pointed to a larger market drop in “Falling ASM 300 Values.” Now the drop is in full swing. All 13 different grades sold in 2019 have lost value in the past 90 days, and it will only get worse before the bleeding stops.
It seemed like a bad idea from the start: a Venom movie with no connection to Spider-Man. For months, I was pessimistic about the film, but the trailers gave me hope. It looked better than Spider-Man 3 (not that the bar was set particularly high after that one) and Venom came across as Venom. Then the early reviews began pouring in, and they weren’t good. Fan opinions were mostly positive, but as I heard many times, people generally saw it as a good bad movie – one that is so bad that it is entertaining. It was the proverbial train wreck; you shouldn’t look, but you can’t look away.
Like me, many collectors were intrigued by the trailers, and ASM #300 values soared because of it. Throughout the summer of 2018, nearly every grade saw record highs in terms of single sales and fair market values. Once the movie was released, the market began to fall. I’m not saying those 2018 figures are gone forever, but we’re definitely in the midst of a lull, and there’s no denying it’s fallout from a poorly reviewed Venom movie.
From the mighty 9.8 down to the modest 3.5 (minus the 6.5, 4.5, and 4.0, since those grades haven’t sold so far in 2019), each grade has suffered post-movie backlash. Over the nine sales for a 9.8 thus far in 2019, it’s averaging $1,976 which is more than $300 below its 2018 FMV. The most recent sale of $1,876 on January 27 is just $81 from the 2017 average, and it is the first time a 9.8 has sold below $1,900 since May 18.
In 2017, the 9.4 had a respectable FMV of $402. The next year, it rode the movie hype to a $501 average and a record high of $893. Prices have come back to Earth in 2019 as it has a 90-day average of $451, and the most recent sale was $425, which is closer to its values from two years ago.
The 7.5 would seem to be doing better, but a closer look reveals an alarming number. Its 90-day average has only dipped $11 below the 2018 FMV, so there’s no cause for concern there. However, a January 24 sale brought $199. In the past year, it’s only sold for less than $200 one other time. This could prove to be an outlier since the next sale was for $240, but that is still under last year’s average.
A few months ago, the mid and lower grades of ASM #300 were still profiting when the upper grades were on a decline. That’s no longer the case.
Last year, the 5.5 had an FMV of $214 and sold for a record $294 on October 22. Not a single copy brought less than $161 all year. Beginning on October 26, things began to decline. It has since sold for less than $200 three out of the past five sales, none of which have been over $227. More telling is the January 10 sale of $145, which is the lowest its been in two years and just shy of 2017’s $144 FMV.
The lowest grade sold so far this year has been the 3.5, and it is at a four-year low. Last year it averaged $172 and brought a record high $206 on June 14. This year has seen nearly half of that record high. On January 25, a 3.5 sold for $108, which is the lowest sale price for that grade since one went for $70 in 2015.
I’m not saying that prices are going to hit all-time lows and reach rock bottom. I’m not saying ASM #300 is no longer a holy grail. As we all know, the market fluctuates, and this particular fluctuation is directly related to the Venom movie. ASM #300 is still a huge seller, and it will remain the best-selling comic on the market, but the FMVs are going to keep falling for at least a few more months.
Venom is too popular for his first appearance to stay down for long, and when excitement for the movie’s sequel begins production, the market will turn around. Between now and then, it will be a buyer’s market.