6 Month Review…”Ultimate Fallout #4: I’ve Changed My Mind”

by Joseph Overaitis

Movie Fans know that critics love to watch a movie and then give their own input on the film. This blog will look from a reader’s perspective at a past blog and if the author was correct with their advice. I want our readers to know I have the benefit of time on my side in this review. No reviewer can be perfect all the time. Fans, for your entertainment tonight we are reviewing a sequel.  So let us sit down and watch the tale of….Ryan Kirksey’s “I’m The Guy Who Wouldn’t Buy Ultimate Fallout #4. I’ve Changed My Mind.”

The Story

Purpose

This was a mea culpa admission production by respected writer Ryan Kirksey.  He previously wrote an article saying he would not buy a copy of Ultimate Fallout #4.  In that original argument, he wrote down several reasons he believed readers should be wary of buying Ultimate Fallout #4 at a time when prices keep soaring.  He indicated that people should wait until there would be a possible price adjustment.  He was not against buying the book, but he did believe there was some risk involvedUF-4-201x300 6 Month Review..."Ultimate Fallout #4: I’ve Changed My Mind" at the current price.  Ryan had valid points.  He used the data.  I was on the edge of my seat throughout the whole article.  In this new article, he changes his mind to the point that he actually bought a copy of Ultimate Fallout #4.

Was the Sequel any Good?

I respect Ryan.   I have read his articles and love the thought processes that he goes through in deciding what books to buy and what books to avoid or sell. Then, I read this article and I wanted to run out of the GoCollect theater.  The first article was such a classic. The sequel was not big on analysis.  Talk about a director mailing it in for cash. This could not be the work of Ryan, so I assumed this article was written by a Skrull imposter.  This sequel had so many plot holes, even Ed Wood would have tried to fix them.

Plot Issues…Examples Cited

In an attempt to show how he erred in the first article. Ryan cites different variables that he never addressed before in his original argument to justify his new position. The problem was that he presented new facts while never re-addressing his original points. Even those new issues were not that strong and big on data.

FAILED CHARACTER REVEALS AND PLOT DETAILS IN THE ORIGINAL?

The first plot hole was that he never mentioned key original Spider-Man books that he believed in the original article were safer than UF#4.  He pointed to their long history of success. These were the examples he mentioned were safer than Ultimate Fallout #4 in the original article and  I have included the new FMV at the time I am writing this article in parentheses:

ASM #2ASM14-198x300 6 Month Review..."Ultimate Fallout #4: I’ve Changed My Mind"First appearance of Vulture. FMV of CGC 2.5 is $900 ($1,500)
ASM #3First appearance of Dr. Octopus. FMV of CGC 2.0 is $1,000 ($2,500)
ASM #9First appearance of Electro. FMV of CGC 6.0 is $1,000 ($1,400)
ASM #14First appearance of Green Goblin. FMV of CGC 3.5 is $1,000 ($2,000)
ASM #20First appearance of Scorpion. FMV of CGC 7.0 is $900 ($1,350)
ASM #31First appearance of Gwen Stacy and Harry Osbourne. FMV of CGC 8.5 is $800 ($1,600)
ASM #50 – First appearance of Kingpin. FMV of CGC 7.5 is $975 ($1,850)
ASM #129 – First appearance of Punisher. FMV of CGC 7.0 is $925 ($1,850)

These are not bad returns on your investment.   Nothing was mentioned in this new article to negate what he originally wrote.   These proven books are still producing like he said they would.

In contrast, he mentioned in the first article that he was afraid that the bubble would burst on the first appearance of Miles Morales.  Why did he change his mind in this new feature? Are we safe from the bubble bursting on Miles Morales?  Is it time for me to look to dump my first appearance of Green Goblin and buy my copy of Miles’ 1st appearance?  Ryan never, though, addresses the issue Miles is now a safe investment.   Why did Ryan change his views?  I hoped his answer was in a post-credit scene, but all I saw was his name at the end of the credits.

HIGH PRINT RUN

Ryan tries not to ignore his audience.  He mentions reader comments and message boards that gave him his new perspective on this issue.  He then utilizes Comichron to review the print run of Ultimate Fallout #4 in relation to the 1990s and later high print runs.

The problem is that he is comparing to different eras.  Print runs may be smaller, but could that be because there is a smaller population of fans buying comic books?  The 1990s was a period that many entered the hobby, but many more leftmaxresdefault-1-300x300 6 Month Review..."Ultimate Fallout #4: I’ve Changed My Mind" as well when they realized they could not make truckloads of money off of their purchases.  This may be a valid reason, but this plot detail also existed in the original film and he did not think it mattered then. Why now was this so important?

TOO MUCH OF THE POPULATION IS GRADED

Ryan delivers on his numbers for the CGC census.  He then extrapolates that data to hypothesize a number for CBCS.  That is what I have come to expect from someone like Ryan in his reviews.  I had hoped this is where the action sequence picked up, but sadly nope.  No exploding cars here.  Instead, he comes up with two points.  The first is that if you buy a book below 9.6  it is almost completely worthless.  Ryan then states 9.8 and 9.6 grades are the two grades most wanted by consumers.  These two plot elements come back later in the story but by then it was a horror film.  The horror victim is my peer, Ryan.

WITH EVERY RISE COMES A FALL

I will let Ryan’s numbers speak for themselves because they have no flaws.  The question I kept having that never was addressed is should I buy now when prices are so high?  He mentions the ideal time to buy the book was near December 2020.  Will this dip happen again or should I buy it now?  It all goes back to the burst bubble in the first article.  Ryan seems to believe that this bubble will never burst.  That is because of his new views and the focus of his next plot point.

WHY I NOW BELIEVE MILES IS HERE TO STAY

Ryan has seen the Miles Morales light in this paragraph.  Ryan is not wrong on any of these views, but he already touched on them in his first article.   Have these new views towards Miles changed so much in less than a year to get Ryan to change his mind?  Ryan never addressed the changes Miles Morales had experienced in the short period since he changed his mind and why it was just enough to get Ryan to recommend buying the book at its now current FMV.

This sequel is not the Godfather II.

UltimateFallout4Crash-218x300 6 Month Review..."Ultimate Fallout #4: I’ve Changed My Mind"UPON FURTHER REVIEW

As a reader, I was left wondering what had happened with our hero Ryan.  I was like him in that I had not purchased the book when it first came out, nor did I buy it when it was modestly priced.  I studied his first article and the numbers backed up his position.  Ryan said in the original that yes, the book was rising in value, but I had to look at safe books to buy and  UF #4 was not safe at those sales prices.  I never got the reason why those numbers in his original analysis should be ignored now. Maybe the final scenes would salvage this production.

Flaws with the Sequel

Ryan is correct that this book is still hot.  Sales prices and the FMV have shown gains since the first article. I cannot fault anything with this part of the analysis.  The problem is what he finally admitted to at the end to demonstrate how strongly he believed in the future potential of this book.  This is the horror aspect I alluded to in a previous part of my review.

Ryan admits that he bought a raw copy of Ultimate Fallout #4.  He even includes a picture of the issue he purchased. What Ryan said next was what was scary.  He indicated that he would not receive a grade of 9.8 because of imperfections.  He then states he can make a profit if it grades out at a 9.6 or 9.4.  I then remember what he said earlier about all grades below a 9.6.

He said, “…it renders everything below that grade almost worthless compared to the top two grades,…”.  That leaves him very little wiggle room when he already knows the book will not grade at a 9.8. I wanted to scream at the theater to don’t go in the basement and buy that lower grade book but it was too late.  I was left feeling this was not a good purchase.  Maybe this was going to have an M. Night Shyamalan twist ending.   Nope.

Final Analysis

Ryan bought this book because he believed that the market could go up and the bright future of the character.  He bought this book totally ignoring the valid numbers he presented in the original article. After reading this sequel I could not even argue that Ryan believed in this character strongly.  Read his other articles and you will see he brings evidence with great numbers to bolster his position.  Here, he brought numbers but never really went into a lengthy analysis on them.  The only number presented that strengthened his position was the increasing sales numbers and FMV, but again he never addressed if those numbers were safe from a downward price adjustment he mentioned could happen in the original article.

Finally, it was in Sequel Ryan’s own words that I felt his recommendation was not one I could take.  He said he did not have a real attachment for Miles Morales. That factors made me not want to take a risk with Ultimate Fallout #4 at its current price.  Original Article Ryan may have been correct that a price adjustment may be on the horizon and there are safer options for me out there.

OSCAR OR RAZZIE?images-2-300x150 6 Month Review..."Ultimate Fallout #4: I’ve Changed My Mind"

Ryan is a great writer and comic book investor.  He is solid on his views and I have followed his advice many a time.  He may have changed his mind on Ultimate Fallout #4 but his original views still are valid points that were never addressed in the second article.  Ryan may have changed his mind and purchased the book,  but that does not mean he was wrong with his first article.

Ryan, your first article was too well done to be overcome by this one.  Yes, prices may be up, but nothing you said in your first article has been proven wrong.  As you said in that article, Miles may have potential, but he also has risks. Your original was brilliant, but your sequel rushed to a conclusion while ignoring the whole first article’s plot details.  Sequels make money, but that does not mean they are not flawed, my friend.  I expect your next production will be Oscar-worthy.

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5 comments

Redskydigger May 20, 2021 - 11:10 pm

Thx Joseph for challenging other writers. I really appreciate this type of professional insight and writing. No personal attacks. Looking forward to Ryan’s response.

Reply
Joseph Overaitis May 21, 2021 - 5:53 pm

Thank you for the comments and welcome to the boards. I too am waiting for Ryan’s response because his two articles were both sides of the argument for this book. I try to ask the questions or provide insight into the articles from a reader’s perspective. I also want to add my two cents for what it is worth. This weekly topic is a product of our great readers who ask these type of questions every day. I want to do the same to make those that read but do not respond in the comments sections to do so. The more we ask and know the better off we will be in the GoCollect community.

Reply
Ryan Kirksey June 2, 2021 - 11:21 am

Thanks, guys. I love this kind of review and accountability. We need more discourse like this in our hobby (and everywhere, frankly).

I guess ultimately this debate about UF4 comes down to one thing. What will happen to it when the comic bubble we are in eventually pops? I am of the opinion that right now, we are at the point of the bubble where my son would come in and show me how huge the bubble is he blew with his gum, knowing that it’s going to pop at any second. We are probably on borrowed time here so we need to be thinking about what to do with our UF4 assets. And what to do with UF4 assets when the pop comes.

It appears from the last month of sales that the high end for a 9.8 is now below $3,000, settling around $2,900. On one hand, that could foreshadow a dip that is happening/about to happen. On the other hand, it is such a small sample of time from when I wrote my original post a year ago, that it’s hard to compare. When I wrote the first piece, the book had crossed $900 and was on it’s way to about $1,200. It saw a small dip before the holidays and then shot up with everything else during the first quarter of 2021.

But what I believe that spike did is allow us to predict a new baseline plateau for the book. Even in a market crash, does it fall back below $1,000 again? Likely not. That means that over time this becomes an extremely valuable hold because the new starting point for any market increase should be around $2,000 or so.

UF4 might now be what Wall Street might call a baseline stock, and moving into blue chip territory. There is so much buzz around the book, the character, the future, and the connections to other Marvel IP, that it’s a proven commodity now. I am very active on comic Instagram and have seen “Miles” themed auctions and claim sales and people grab that stuff up.

Do I think it’s wise to just buy this book no matter the price? I don’t think so. But I do think it’s probably worth monitoring for a 6-month time frame to see where the baseline settles and know that it likely won’t fall below that in the years ahead.

Thanks for the interesting discussion!

Reply
Redskydigger May 21, 2021 - 11:49 pm

After not collecting for over 30 years and inheriting over 5000 books from the 90’s it’s been very difficult to follow all the investing vs collecting advice. Thank you for adding clarity to these discussions.

Reply
Joseph Overaitis May 21, 2021 - 11:55 pm

You can never truly get away from it LOL. Keep reading these articles and you will learn a lot. Even with all I know I still learn something new or get a different viewpoint on topics that assist me in buying and selling.

Reply

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