In a previous post published a few months ago, that you can read here, I wrote about collectible covers.
As I put it then, many collectors buy and slab comics because the cover is either well drawn or portrays an iconic character/group/event. These books have value even if they are otherwise not at all keys, and sometimes they may not even have a particularly memorable or very significant story between their covers.
In my earlier post I also noted several high priced comics that have seemingly accrued value solely on the basis of cover art (Incredible Hulk #340, Batman #251, Wonder Woman v2, #72). I stated there why I thought those books were either over or under-valued. In that post I deliberately ignored limited print run/variant-covers.
This time, I’ll take a look at some variant covers and also compare them to other books that are either of high value or have well known and iconic covers. Are these dazzling covers worth collecting and investing in?
As I said in my previous ‘Collectible Covers’ post: in an age of professional grading the trend of collecting based on cover art alone is somewhat understandable.
Once a book is graded and slabbed, what you’re left with (in a sense) is a plastic and mylar encased over-sized post-card; a plastic wrapped wall poster. The trend of over-valuing covers has not at all slowed down in the past year. Very briefly: what books have sold for high amounts of money based mostly on their covers and have these books maintained value?
Batgirl #23 (May 2018) - Joshua Middleton variant Cover
Okay, here’s a book that got a lot of attention because of the realistic Joshua Middleton cover. So much did people like this cover there are 468 copies of this practically brand new comic on the CGC census alone. Naturally, the vast majority of the copies slabbed [390 of the 468] are 9.8 in grade. Those 9.8’s currently have a FMV of $130.00.
What’s the prognosis on paying that much for a book that, by all rights, should sell for around $4.00? Not good: this book started off very strong due to hype and social media gossip surrounding the Middleton cover. At one point, in June of 2018 (i.e. immediately after its release), 9.8 certified copies were selling for upwards of $200.00 (confirmed Ebay sale on 06/13/2018). It broke the 200.00 mark four times in July, and then started to trend ever down. Currently it sits at negative returns across the board. Down – 16% in 9.8, negative – 15% in 9.6 and minus -35% in 9.4 grades. Seems like the market is now adjusting and, let’s face it, other than the cover Batgirl #23 is not a key issue. The non-variant cover has no copies whatsoever on the CGC census and regularly sells for under $10.00 on eBay. It also didn’t help that the follow up variant-covers by Middleton (especially issue #25 - see pic at the top of this post) were nowhere near as well received.
Verdict: Over-valued.
Amazing Spider-man #798 (August 2018) – Alex Ross Cover
Alex Ross is the king of realistic, natural looking painted art and has been contributing great covers for many years. One of those covers is the painted cover of ASM #798. This issue is one of the final in Dan Slott’s Spider-man run, which had some good moments. The cover prominently features Spidey and long-time foe the Green Goblin. It’s also the number 1 selling modern comic according to data from GoCollect.com. So how do prices and returns on investment fare?
There are 1,351 of these comics listed on the CGC census. Again, the vast majority (1,220) are certified 9.8 and even 9.9 copies can be found on the census. With a current FMV of $34.00 at 9.8, ROI has not been kind to this book. This is somewhat surprising because, unlike the case of Batgirl #23, this is actually a minor key - featuring the first appearance of the Red Goblin. Yet the data doesn’t lie: returns are either flat or sharply down in all grades. Hard to believe this Alex Ross cover was, at one point, selling for $100.00.
Verdict: Over-valued.
Amazing Spider-man #39 (August 1966) – First John Romita Spider-man art
What’s the alternative then? Well, in the case of Spider-man a much better investment is the earlier issues (everything above #300 is hit and miss with Spidey). As regards Green Goblin covers, moreover, ASM #39 - with its classic John Romita cover - is under-valued in my book.
Taking over illustration duties for Steve Ditko couldn’t have been easy, but in 1966 that’s exactly what John Romita Sr. did. The consensus, many years later, is that he succeeded brilliantly. Romita managed to put his own distinct stamp on Spidey without losing the heart and soul of the Stan Lee era web-slinger. Spidey went from weird looking teen-ager to handsome square jawed hero, but the quality of the stories remained strong. ASM #39 is not the Goblin’s first, second or even third appearance, but the cover Romita drew is so iconic I would rate this book as under-valued.
Sure, it currently has 2,078 copies on the CGC census, but with only 5 of those at 9.8 and with the vast majority of copies between 6.5 - 9.0 this means anything 9.0 or above is a great investment with potential for growth. With 9.0 certified copies currently selling at $850.00 and a 9.2 for $1, 550.00, this one will cost you a bit of money. But returns thus far have been mostly all positive with 9.2's up + 43.8% after 24 sales since 2009. At that time this comic in 9.2 was selling for just over $1000.00.
Verdict: Under-Valued.
