I have little hope that Dark Phoenix will be any better than Apocalypse or Last Stand, and we all know the damage a bad movie can have on key issues. X-Men #101 has been flourishing for two years now, but when the new movie flops, it will bring those values down with it.
I read an interesting article from Forbes, "X-Men: Dark Phoenix is being Set Up to Fail," and one of the key points made in it was that, once again, we're getting a grounded, real-world take on the Phoenix, which is exactly how it was portrayed in the atrocious X-Men: Last Stand.
As a longtime X-Men fan, I've still got a very bad taste in my mouth from Apocalypse. When I watch the Dark Phoenix trailer, I am reminded too much of that travesty of a movie. In what should be Fox's final film in its X-Men franchise, I'm expecting a mix of Last Stand and Apocalypse. To paraphrase Jeff Foxworthy (when was the last time you heard that name?), you don't get Avion by mixing sewer water and pond scum.
However, falling values can be a blessing in disguise. The Phoenix keys will always be popular, so they're a solid investment. As the fair market values drop due to the movie, you can keep your investment low until the next time a filmmaker decides to resurrect the idea.
When it comes to the Phoenix, there's no bigger key than X-Men #101. It is a very hot comic, and that makes it a seller's market, and it has been for two years now.
It didn't matter the grade, 2017 was a great year for X-Men #101, and every grade sold last year experienced an increase in FMV. This year, it's gotten even more popular, and those FMVs are still rising. The 9.4 has been the best seller, trading hands on eBay 50 times since this time last year. It's FMV has jumped from $480 in 2017 to $810 in the 12-month FMV. For the past 90 days, it's sold 11 times for an average of $873. Just last month, one sold for $1,000.
The low grades are on the move as well. The 4.5 has nearly reached the $200 mark since October, and a 3.0 brought $153 in November.
What's it all mean? As a buyer, I advise patience. Let Fox's Dark Phoenix bring these prices back to reality. Take that 9.4 for example. In February and March 2006, just before Last Stand premiered, that grade was bringing $500. On May 29, just three days after the movie's release, it sold for $350. By the end of the year, it was consistently bringing less than $300.
The same thing happened in 2016 when X-Men: Apocalypse was released. In June, after movie audiences were teased with the Phoenix, prices clung to the $500 range. As enthusiasm for the movie waned, values fell below $400 by the fall and winter.
I've been wrong about movie successes before. They're like predicting the weather; you look for patterns and historical data, but in the end, you have to wait and see what happens. I thought Venom would tank, but fans have enjoyed it, and it was a box office success. For now, I'm sticking to my guns, and Dark Phoenix looks like it will be a flop.
